FOB China HRC
The index was unchanged yesterday (11.8.21) at US$928/t, MTD US$928.57/t.
North China’s Tangshan government requires its independent rolling mills to maintain current production restriction ratio from 10 August to control ozone pollution, with no end date given. Chinese mills could make Yn800-1,000/t gross profit for coils at current spot prices, wider than the Yn400-500/t gross margins for rebar. Mills are trying to keep coil production online because of the higher margins and cut output of long steels to meet production cut targets for the rest of the year,
There is nearly no bid from seaborne buyers as Chinese mills kept offers unchanged. Cargoes may start to trade after China settles its next round of export tax changes. Vietnamese buyers wait for Vietnam mill Formosa Ha Tinh’s new monthly offers, whose announcement has been postponed until next Monday. (Argus)
Turkish Scrap
Some US, Baltic sellers heard to resist further drops
Turkish mills estimated around 15 further September cargoes
Turkish Deepsea import ferrous scrap prices were largely stable Aug. 11, amid mixed sentiment on near-term price direction among sellers, sources said. S&P Global Platts assessed Turkish imports of premium heavy melting scrap 1/2 80:20 Aug. 11 at $457.25/mt CFR, down 25 cents/mt on day.
“It looks like we’re close to the bottom now – we might see a HMS-only cargo from the [EU] continent at $450/mt CFR,” one Turkish agent source said, suggesting US suppliers may resist at $460/mt CFR for HMS 1/2 80:20, and at $480/mt CFR minimum for shredded scrap.
Turkish mills were estimated to still require around 15 more September shipment cargoes, the agent said, citing available cargoes from three US suppliers and at least two Baltic sellers. “It’s difficult to say if we have reached the bottom,” a Baltic recycler said. “But today we have sold shredded scrap in containers [to South Asia] at a level that equals a HMS 1/2 80:20 price at $465-$470/mt CFR Turkey, so for the moment I do not see us accepting selling prices below this level.” However, other market sources expected some UK and Benelux sellers to be able to accept lower prices for HMS-only cargoes. (Platts)
EHR CME
Northwest European hot-rolled coil (HRC) trade remains very subdued, with the vast majority of participants out of office.
The daily benchmark NW EU HRC index nudged up by €3.50/t to €1,144/t ex-works yesterday. The daily domestic cold-rolled coil (CRC) assessment was static at €1,300/t ex-works, while Argus’ inaugural fca Antwerp CRC import assessment was €1,190/t.
Most buyers felt sufficiently covered until November or after and were anticipating lower import offers on the back of softer slab costs. A trader said he was bid at €985/t cfr last week, but the price was unworkable; Turkish and Asian material was heard available below this level.
Indian CRC has been offered as low as €1,070-1080/t cfr Antwerp, but appetite is limited because some fear the October-December quota could exhaust relatively quickly upon opening: the July-September quota has now been overfilled, with over 172,000t clearing into the 150,000t duty-free allowance, and some participants suspect material will be held over for customs clearance until the fourth quarter. Given the monsoon season, and low domestic demand, Indian mills have been aggressive into Europe, and other export markets, in the last few months. (Argus)
| Indices | Price | Change | MTD |
| Platts TSI HMS 1/2 80:20 CFR Turkey ($/mt) | 457.25 | -0.25 | 484.83 |
| Steel Rebar FOB Turkey ($/mt) | 697.50 | 0.00 | 720.57 |
| Argus HRC NW Europe (€/mt) | 1144.00 | 3.50 | 1165.08 |
| Argus FOB China HRC ($/mt) | 928.00 | 0.00 | 904.62 |
| LME HRC FOB TIANJIN CHINA USD/mt | LME HMS 80:20 CFR TK | |||||||
| Bid | Ask | Value | Bid | Ask | Value | |||
| Aug-21 | 925 | 935 | 930 | Aug-21 | 455 | 465 | 460 | |
| Sep-21 | 935 | 945 | 940 | Sep-21 | 467 | 477 | 472 | |
| Oct-21 | 935 | 945 | 940 | Oct-21 | 475 | 485 | 480 | |
| Nov-21 | 935 | 945 | 940 | Nov-21 | 475 | 485 | 480 | |
| Q4-21 | 934 | 944 | 939 | Q4-21 | 473 | 483 | 470 | |
| Q1-22 | 915 | 925 | 920 | Q1-22 | 465 | 475 | 470 | |
| LME REBAR FOB TK | BUSHELING | |||||||
| Bid | Ask | Value | Bid | Ask | Value | |||
| Aug-21 | 680 | 690 | 685 | Sep-21 | 642 | 652 | 647 | |
| Sep-21 | 705 | 715 | 710 | Oct-21 | 642 | 652 | 647 | |
| Oct-21 | 705 | 715 | 710 | Nov-21 | 650 | 660 | 655 | |
| Nov-21 | 705 | 715 | 710 | Dec-21 | 655 | 665 | 660 | |
| Q4-21 | 703 | 713 | 708 | Q1-22 | 655 | 665 | 660 | |
| Q1-22 | 675 | 685 | 680 | Q2-22 | 648 | 658 | 653 | |
| US HRC USD/short ton | NWE HRC EUR/metric ton | |||||||
| Bid | Ask | Value | Bid | Ask | Value | |||
| Aug-21 | 1876 | 1886 | 1881 | Aug-21 | 1145 | 1155 | 1150 | |
| Sep-21 | 1889 | 1899 | 1894 | Sep-21 | 1133 | 1143 | 1138 | |
| Oct-21 | 1770 | 1780 | 1775 | Oct-21 | 1105 | 1115 | 1110 | |
| Nov-21 | 1665 | 1675 | 1670 | Nov-21 | 1060 | 1070 | 1065 | |
| Q4-21 | 1678 | 1688 | 1683 | Q4-21 | 1070 | 1080 | 1075 | |
| Q1-22 | 1475 | 1485 | 1480 | Q1-22 | 959 | 969 | 964 | |