Newly reported coronavirus cases and mobility data, including an EIA report on gasoline consumption coming out later this week, will be watched by market participants in order to determine the short-term direction of crude prices in the next few days.
On the supply side OPEC+ production is at its lowest since 1991 and is helping to support oil market sentiment and fundamentals. However, the current production curbs of 9.7 million b/d is set to expire at the end of July, and ease into cuts of 7.7 million b/d from August until December.
As the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting is scheduled for July 15, uncertainty persists about the likelihood of the scheduled production increase. According to Stephen Innes, chief global markets analyst at AxiCorp interviewed by Platts, should the forward slope not move into backwardation, OPEC+ will be more inclined to extend the 9.7 million b/d production cut accord beyond July.
Meanwhile, Libya is expected to export 1.2 million barrels in July, a third less than the 1.8 million barrels exported in June. In the US the number of operating U.S. oil and natural gas rigs fell to an all-time low for a ninth week, although the reductions have slowed as higher oil prices prompt some producers to start drilling again.