S African Kumba iron ore volumes may fall on rail issue

 

South African logistic utility Transnet’s force majeure declaration has disrupted shipments from UK-South African miner Anglo American’s Kumba iron ore operations in South Africa.

 

Kumba received a notice of force majeure from Transnet on 7 October because of strike action by Transnet’s unions, the miner said today. Transnet manages the rail line connecting the miner’s Kumba operations to the Saldanha Bay.

 

The estimated impact on production as a result of the disruption to Transnet’s rail and port services is approximately 50,000 t/d for the first seven days and subsequently about 90,000 t/d. Export sales will fall by approximately 120,000 t/d.

 

The firm’s Kumba operations produced 9.4mn t of iron ore in the July-September quarter, with a lump to fines ratio of 66:34. Output was down by 4pc on the year. The company sold 40.3mn t of iron ore from Kumba, which includes the Sishen and Kolomela mines, in 2021.

 

Lump premiums surged in September because of sintering restrictions in the country to curb pollution ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China this month. Sintering curbs are common during the winter months, starting from October. Markets in China were closed last week to mark the Golden Week holiday.

 

The Argus 62pc lump premium stood at 20¢/dry metric tonne unit (dmtu) on 30 September, the highest since June.

 

Supply of direct-charge materials, such as iron ore lump and pellets from India and Ukraine will be curbed this year in the winter months because of steep export taxes and the continuing conflict with Russia respectively, pushing global steelmakers to seek alternative supplies.

 

Steel production cuts in China and other major steel-making regions may limit demand should steel prices fail to pick up. Anglo’s Kumba iron ore is typically around 64pc average grade. The firm announced an annual production guidance of 38mn-40mn t from Kumba this year, accounting for around 62pc of its output.

 

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