Ferrous Market
– MySteel Australia and Brazil iron ore total delivery at 24.05 million tonnes, up 322,000 tonnes. Australia iron ore delivery 16.44 million tonnes, down 246,000 tonnes w-o-w. Australia delivery to China 14.29 million tonnes, up 734,000 tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore delivery 7.6 million tonnes, up 568,000 tonnes w-o-w. Global iron ore delivery 29.75 million tonnes, down 582,000 tonnes w-o-w.
– Mysteel expect early August daily crude steel production at 2.98 million tonnes, up 6.5% from late July, created yearly high.
– CISA has responded that China Department of Transportation has started to resolve port congestion problems to ensure the normal supply of iron ore on ports, expected congestion relieved by mid or end of August.
Macro
– China broad money supply growth, M2, fell to 10.7%, previous month 11.1%. New yuan loans stood at 992.7 billion yuan in July, compared with 1.81 trillion yuan in June. Some bank analysts said the monetary policy is returning to a “normal” status currently.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest(Aug 11th)
– Futures 74,794,400 tonnes(increase 1,334,600 tonnes)
– Options 109,771,900 tonnes(increase 1,185,000 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term neutral to bearish.