Ferrous Market
– MySteel Rebar Inventory: Rebar production 3.5 million tonnes, up 1.02% w-o-w. Mills inventory 2.58 million tonnes, up 15.27% w-o-w. Circulation inventory 3.64 million tonnes, up 0.43% w-o-w.
– Tangshan 10 sample steel mills pig iron before tax 2796 yuan/tonne, billet cost 3581 yuan/tonne, up 107 yuan/tonne w-o-w. Gross profit 159 yuan/tonne, down 237 yuan/tonne.
– MySteel estimated steel capacity up 40 million tonnes in the year 2021.
– China scrap resource in the year 2020 reached 260 million tonnes, up 20 million tonnes w-o-w. Steel mills produced 47.66 million scraps.
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Macro
– China December PMI 51.9, last 52.1, estimate 52.
– China steel PMI 45.8, last 49.3.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest(Dec 30th)
– Futures 82,603,600 tonnes(decrease 173,500 tonnes)
– Options 67,563,000 tonnes(0 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term neutral to bearish