Ferrous Market
– Vale decrease the iron ore 2020 production to 300-305 million tonnes, previously 310-330 million tonnes. The year 2021 expected production at 315-335 million tonnes. The year 2022 iron ore production reached 400 million tonnes. In next few years, Vale expected annual production reaching 450 million tonnes.
– MySteel Rebar Inventory: Rebar production 3.599 million tonnes, down 0.06% w-o-w. Mills inventory 2.495 million tonnes, up 6.88% w-o-w. Circulation inventory 4.27 million tonnes, down 5.31% w-o-w.
– FMG Eliwana expected to finish the production of first load of iron ore, earlier than previous estimation date.
– Indian miner NDMC November iron ore production at 3.32 million tonnes, up 13% y-o-y. Iron ore sales reached 3.3 million tonnes, up 18% y-o-y. April – Nov iron ore 17.98 million tonnes, down 4.81% y-o-y, sales 18.73 million tonnes, down 6% y-o-y.
– Tangshan 10 sample steel mills pig iron before tax 2479 yuan/tonne, billet cost 3218 yuan/tonne, up 19 yuan/tonne w-o-w. Gross profit 372 yuan/tonne, down 9 yuan/tonne.
Macro
– China local debts issuance created historic high in the year 2020, the first 11 months totaled issed 626 billion yuan of local debts. The whole year issuance expected to reach 650 trillion yuan.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest(Dec 2nd)
– Futures 62,768,000 tonnes(increase 746,200 tonnes)
– Options 55,414,900 tonnes(increase 1,474,000 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term neutral