Ferrous Market
– Vale port at Malaysia PDM III North and PDM IV South maintenance expected delivery impact arround 518,000 tonnes.
– MySteel Australia and Brazil delivery last week down 1.35 million tonnes. Australia delivery 18.58 million tonnes, down 223,000 tonnes. Australia delivery to China 15.95 milllion tonnes, up 161,000 tonnes w-o-w. Brazil delivery 6.88 million tonnes, down 1.13 million tonnes w-o-w.
– China Iron ore 45 port arrivals at 24.95 million tonnes, down 1.16 million tonnes w-o-w. Northern six port arrivals at 13.15 million tonnes, down 285,000 million tonnes w-o-w.
– China Guangdong safety accident(7 deaths and 2 injuries) triggered some constructions suspension and some steels and cement trades are becoming cautious.
– Ganggu: Construction steel production 5.42 million tonnes, down 14,300 tonnes w-o-w. Circulation 10.62 million tonnes, down 332,700 tonnes w-o-w. Mills inventory 4.55 million tonnes, down 515,100 tonnes.
Macro
– IMF estimated the year 2020 global economic growth rate decrease 4.4% y-o-y, 0.8% higher than previous estimation at decrease 5.2%. China estimated to become the only country with positive growth.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest(Oct 13th)
– Futures 70,692,900 tonnes(increase 491,300 tonnes)
– Options 92,024,300 tonnes(decrease 95,000 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term bearish.