Ferrous Market
– Steelbank Inventory: construction steel inventories 6.73 million tonnes, down 7.94% w-o-w. HRC 6.38 million tonnes, down 4.83%.
– World Steel Association: 2o2o Global steel demand down 2.4% y-o-y to 1.725 billion tonnes. Year 2021 steel demand recovered to 1.795 billion tonnes, up 4.1% estimated.
– MySteel 45 ports iron ore inventories at 122.39 million tonnes, up 1.78 million tonnes w-o-w. Daily evacuation 3.12 million tonnes, down 58,500 tonnes w-o-w. Australia iron ore 58.53 million tonnes, down 483,600 tonnes w-o-w. Brazil iron ore 35.2 million tonnes, up 1.87 million tonnes w-o-w. 165 ships at ports, up 3.
– From Jan – Sep, Arcelor Mittal Kryviy Rih crude steel production 3.64 million tonnes, down 15.8% y-o-y. Pig iron production 3.64 million tonnes, down 10.5% y-o-y.
– Wu’An, a city in Heibei has published winter production cut schedule, total estimated decreasing 31,300 tonnes of pig iron in October, 35,100 tonnes of pig iron in November, 41,500 tonnes of pig iron in December.
– September China pig iron production 2.53 million tonnes, down 0.3% m-o-m. Crude steel production 3.09 million tonnes, up 0.84% m-o-m. Steel products production 3.94 million tonnes, up 2.41% m-o-m. Crude steel and steel products production both created historically high.
Macro
– China Q3 GDP growth rate 4.9%, est. 5.5%, previous 3.2%.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest(Oct 16th)
– Futures 72,568,100 tonnes(increase 717,500 tonnes)
– Options 93,089,300 tonnes(increase 235,000 tonnes)
Verdict
– Short-term bearish.