Verdict:
• Short-run Neutral.
Macro:
• Vale announced unchanged on its production target in 2024 from 310 – 320 million tons. The H1 2024 produced 151 million tons, accounted for 47.19-48.7% of total production target. However, the annual production expected to reach the higher boundary of estimation because of seasonal high delivery in H2.
Iron Ore Key Indicators:
• Platts62 $104.95, -2.30, MTD $109.19. The trade activity remain light during yesterday. No enquires on mainstream iron ore. The thin physical margin and extreme weather in China summer force some steel mills to extend maintenance. However virtual steel margin recovered during past two weeks, which potentially symbolize a recovery of physical margin in August.
SGX Iron Ore 62% Futures& Options Open Interest (Jul 17th)
• Futures 108,779,200 tons(Increase 288,600 tons)
• Options 157,382,100 tons(Increase 1,215,000 tons)
Steel Key Indicators:
• The Deepsea Turkish scrap market was flat during current days, with Baltic origin traded at $390/mt. However Turkish mills started to see some attractive billet offers from China.
Coal Indicators:
• The FOB coking coal market remained on downward trajectory because of oversupply on June-August laycans and reselling pressure from south east Asia.
