Capesize

May Futures- The futures roll has resulted in price making a new high, meaning the technical is now considered as bullish. However, price has opened on and failed to close above the daily 200-period MA, resulting in a technical pullback. The intraday futures have now entered neutral territory, the daily technical remains bullish above USD 23,995 and neutral below. The RSI at 56 is in bull territory with price holding above the Fibonacci support zone, but the May contract is around USD 13,500 above the index, suggesting upside moves could be limited without index support. Technically bullish based on the roll with key support at USD 23,995, the futures now need to see the index turn bullish otherwise the futures could come under further pressure.

 

Panamax

May Futures – The downside move on the open today has resulted in price moving below key support, meaning the daily technical has a neutral bias; However, the futures are in a consolidation phase with price finding support on the EMA band (30-60), warning we could be forming a base around these levels. The index continues to move lower with the technical also neutral due to price breaking support. The 3-year average value on the seasonality chart (Index) turns on the 12/04, whilst on the rolling front month futures it is around the 08/04. The technical is bullish with a neutral bias supported by the seasonality charts and the EMA band, suggesting downside moves are likely to finding buying support at this point.

 

Supramax

May Futures- We noted last week that near-term support levels could be tested after the index started correcting on a negative divergence; however, our wave analysis remains technically bullish. Like the Panamax the Supramax futures are currently testing the EMA support band (30-60) which remain stable at this point. Downside moves below the USD 29,750 fractal support will weaken the technical, but we remain bullish above the USD 26,750 level and bearish below. The three-year seasonality chart on the rolling front month futures are also due to enter a bullish phase within the coming days, warning market sellers should be cautious around these levels.

 

Oil

June Futures – Intervention from the U.S. Government has seen a stabilization of the futures after they announced they will release 1 million bpd from their strategic reserves over the next 6 months, this has put the futures into a neutral phase. The longer-term trend remains bullish with price holding above the USD 96.93 support (USD 3.02 higher today at USD 107.39), downside moves below the USD 96.93 level will warn the USD 90.12 support level could be tested. If broken the intervention will have been successful as it would suggest the long-term Elliott wave cycle will have failed. Lots of outside influence in this technical with the recent accusation of war crimes by Russia opening the possibility to further sanctions and potentially even a complete withdrawal of purchasing gas supplies by Germany. Strategic oil reserves are influencing the technical, but at this point it remains bullish but with a neutral bias, if we close today above the USD 106.24 level, we could see further tests to the upside.

 

Ore

May Futures – The Chinese are on holiday for the 04/05 of this month but we continue to see prices move higher on the back of potential financial stimulus. When we look at the technical, the adage of buy the rumour sell the fact does springs to mind. Price is bullish, but it is not a convincing upside move. The futures have covered around 60% the distance of the previous bull wave in a longer-period of time, indicating a lack of strength in the trend. This does not mean that we will not achieve a new high, but from a technical perspective the weakness in price and momentum is a concern. Seasonality supports an upside move; however, if we do trade above USD 171.00 high we could struggle to hold above it, as price looks vulnerable. An unconvinced bull at this point based on the trend weakness.

 

Steel

May Futures – the roll into the May contract and the subsequent upside move means the futures remain in a bullish wave 5 of this phase. The technical itself is showing a negative divergence, not a sell signal it does warn that we have the potential to see a momentum slowdown, meaning that from a technical perspective the futures are not considered buy. Downside moves below USD 1,465 will create a lower low on the technical indicating we have entered a bearish phase. A corrective move lower that holds above the USD 1,169 level will warn that there could be a larger bull cycle in play; however if we trade below this level then the USD 947 fractal low will become a legitimate downside target. Technically bullish but not a technical buy at this point.

 

Tanker TD3

May Futures – The April RSI moved above 50 last week resulting in the futures trading up to but not above the USD 9.4601 resistance before correcting. The May futures however have traded above the USD 9.6550 resistance meaning we now target the USD 10.3000 high. Downside moves that hold at or above USD 8.7294 will support a bull argument, below this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Upside moves above the USD 10.3000 high have the potential to create a negative divergence with the RSI, if we do it will warn we could see a momentum slowdown. The RSI is at 64 whilst its moving average is at 50 and sloping higher, this would suggest that support levels should hold if tested (current Fibonacci support is at USD 9.2144, USD 9.0085, and USD 8.7294. Technically bullish.

 

Coal

May Futures – the April contract has traded below the USD 454 level meaning the futures have a neutral bias. The May futures have also produced a deep pullback meaning they have a neutral bias. Upside moves above the USD 480.33 level will be considered as bullish, suggesting the USD 585 high could be tested. Likewise, below USD 385 will warn the USD 331 fractal support could be tested. This is a key level as the technical would be considered as bearish below this level. We now have a 3-wave corrective pattern with the RSI below 50, but the moving average on the RSI is not. If the RSI moves above its moving average (RSI is 45 its MA is 54) then we could see upside resistance levels be tested. Bullish but with a neutral bias at this point.