Capesize
November Futures – The downside move in the futures has held at the USD 14,750 support meaning the technical remains bullish but with a neutral bias (the intraday technical is bearish). Upside moves that fail at or below USD 18,917 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside; above this level, and the futures will target the USD 21,000 high. The RSI is neutral at 49.3 with the stochastic in oversold territory; momentum is a warning that we are vulnerable to a test to the upside. The technical is bullish neutral, and the futures have held fractal support with momentum vulnerable to a test to the upside, making USD 18,917 the key near-term resistance. Above USD 21,000 we target the USD 22,430 and USD 23,045 resistance zone.
Panamax
November Futures – The futures traded below the USD 16,593 support, meaning the technical is bullish but with a natural bias; a bullish rejection candle yesterday means we have seen a strong move to the upside today. Near-term resistance is at USD 18,044 (current price is 17,675); upside moves above this level will warn that the USD 19,300 high is vulnerable. Further resistance is at USD 19,737 and USD 23,184. The near-term technical is bullish with a neutral bias, and the longer-term Elliott wave cycle would suggest that the current upside move is countertrend. If we maintain these levels today on yesterday’s rejection candle, we could see the USD 19,300 resistance come under pressure soon. Downside moves below USD 15,250 will have bearish implications in the future. It is worth noting that Elliott Wave’s analysis is based on the psychological footprint of the market. It can and does fail at times; however, the 5-year seasonality chart suggests that the index could top out between the 15 – 21 of October, supporting our wave analysis. It is also worth noting that the index has moved up until the 15th of Oct in 6 of the last seven years, suggesting resistance could be tested soon.
Supramax
November futures – The technical remains bearish but with a neutral bias, having failed to trade above the USD 19,975 fractal resistance. The futures are moving higher, having held above the USD 16,425 support, but we remain below all key moving averages supported by the RSI below 50. Upside moves above USD 19,975 will mean the technical is bullish based on the futures making a higher high; However, the longer-term Elliott wave cycle would suggest that the current upside moves are considered countertrend with the futures remaining vulnerable below USD 27,153 and neutral above. 5-year average values on the seasonality chart turn bearish around 20/10, supporting our wave analysis but warning that resistance levels could be tested in the near term.
Oil
December Futures – This technical is getting a little interesting as OPEC and its allies are making sounds regarding heavier production cuts; this could potentially kill off our bearish Elliott wave cycle. As we stand, the technical is bearish in what looks to be a countertrend move; upside moves that fail at or below USD 98.06 will leave the technical vulnerable to further tests to the downside. However, above USD 95.80, it will warn that there could be an issue relating to the wave count, as this is an important fractal for the lower timeframe. Technically bearish but with momentum to the buy side, the sabre rattling from OPEC would suggest keeping an eye on the commitment of trader’s report for any signs that an aggressive production cut could be on the cards, as the next move has the potential to not be linked to the technical.
Tankers TD3
November Futures – Technically bullish last week with downside moves considered countertrend, the October futures have entered a corrective phase. We have seen a similar downside move in the November contract, with the pullback considered deep into the last bull move that started on 07/09/22; the near-term technical is bullish but with a neutral bias. The longer-term wave cycle remains bullish with key support at USD 13.3903; corrective moves that hold at or above this level will support the larger bull cycle; however, if broken, the larger cycle will have a neutral bias. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 17.6401 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, suggesting we could be in a more complex corrective wave 4. Technically bullish but with momentum based on price currently to the downside, the 21-period RSI is near neutral at 49 with the stochastic in oversold territory; if the RSI moves above 50, then resistance levels could be tested; however, if the RSI holds below 50 the fractal support at USD 14.3090 will be a target for market sellers.