Capesize
August Futures – last week we noted that the divergence will need to be monitored on the July contract, price did move higher but failed to trade above the fractal resistance at USD 26,625 resulting in the futures moving to the downside. The roll into August has created a higher high meaning the rolling front month technical is bullish. A bearish rejection candle on the 30/06 warned that we had the potential to enter a corrective phase. The downside move today below the base of this candle (USD 28,250) has resulted in bids fading in front of technical sellers, price is now trading at USD 27,250. Downside moves that hold at or above USD 23,897 will support a bull argument, below this level we target the USD 20,625 lew. Upside moves above USD the high of the rejection candle (USD 30,250) will target the USD 32,750 and USD 39,500 fractal resistance levels. Technically bullish on the back of the roll, the futures are now in the early stages of a corrective phase, making key support to follow at USD 23,897.
Panamax
August Futures – The futures have rolled into August, as noted last week the intraday Elliott wave cycle suggested that upside moves should be considered as countertrend. The futures have moved higher but rejected a key near-term resistance level at USD 25,767, leaving price vulnerable to a test to the downside, resulting in a move lower. Key longer-term resistance to monitor is at USD 27,417, upside moves that fail at or below this level will leave the technical vulnerable to further tests to the downside. Technically bearish, the USD 19,875 support is now looking vulnerable, below this level we target the USD 17,273 – USD 16,425 support zone.
Supramax
August Futures – As noted last week, intraday Elliott wave analysis suggest the futures remained vulnerable to further tests to the downside with key resistance at USD 28,055. Price has traded to a high of USD 25,500 but is now moving lower, warning the USD 23,375 support is looking vulnerable. Using the Williams approach (Bill not Larry) we have a potential downside target at USD 21,714 for this phase of the cycle. Technically bearish with price potentially in the early stages of an Elliott 5th wave. Upside moves above USD 25,500 will continue to remain vulnerable below the USD 28,055 level, above this level the technical is neutral.
Oil
September Futures – The roll into August has resulted in price gapping lower. However, price remains within the last dominant wave is between the 19/05 and 31/05 (USD 15.70 – USD 125.28). The technical is bullish but with a neutral bias due to the depth of the pullback. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 116.20 will leave the daily technical vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level we target the USD 120.41 fractal resistance. Likewise, a close above USD 114.35 will warn that the USD 116.20 resistance could be tested. Downside moves below USD 107.03 will target the USD 105.70 fractal support, this is a key level, if broken the daily technical is bearish.
Iron ore
August Futures – As highlighted last week, key resistance on the futures was at USD 125.06, upside moves that failed at this level would warn we could be about to enter a bearish wave 5; whilst downside moves below USD 118.00 will target the USD 112.95 level in the near-term. The futures traded to a high of USD 125.10 before trading below the USD 118.00 support, to a low of USD 107.15. The intraday Elliott wave cycle remains bearish with a potential downside target at USD 100.38. upside moves above USD 125.10 will target the USD 133.08 resistance, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias, only above USD 147.60 is the daily technical bullish. However, if we trade below the USD 106.65 low and then trade above the USD 125.10 level the daily technical will be bullish. Technically bearish with a potential downside target at USD 100.38.
Steel
August Futures – technically bearish last week but not considered a technical sell due to the intraday technical being in divergence. The futures did trade lower with price trading below the USD 895 low. The futures have now rolled into August with price continuing to make new lows; however, the intraday technical remains in divergence, warning we have the potential to exhaust soon. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 992 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Only above USD 1,064 is the technical bullish. Technically bearish, we maintain our view that the futures are not considered a technical sell at these levels.
Tankers TD3
August Futures – Technically bullish on the July contract last week but in divergence with the RSI which needed to be monitored, the futures traded to new highs. The August contract is above all key moving averages supported by the RSI above 50, momentum indicators are making new highs with price, suggesting downside moves should be considered as countertrend. Corrective moves lower that hold at or above USD 9.9834 will support a bull argument, below this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Only below USD 9.4550 is the technical bearish. Price is now approaching the USD 11.1060 resistance; upside moves above this level will target the USD 11.4050 and USD 11.5584 levels. Technically bullish, downside moves should be considered as countertrend at this point.
Coking Coal
August Futures – Technically bearish on the July contract with upside moves considered to be countertrend, price traded below the USD 294 support and is now nearing the USD 264 level. The August contract continues to move lower with price below all key moving averages supported by the RSI below 50. Momentum indicators continue to make new lows, suggesting upside moves should be considered as countertrend at this point. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 334 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Only above USD 364.33 is the technical bullish. Near-term support is now at USD 260, downside moves below this level will target the USD 232 and USD 208 levels. Technically bearish upside moves are considered as countertrend.