Oil
August Futures – Technically bullish on the last report the futures did trade above the USD 115.69 fractal resistance resulting in the USD 123.74 level being broken. The roll into the August contract resulted in a technical pullback, however price held above the USD 112.36 level supporting a bull argument. Key support remains unchanged, corrective moves lower that hold at or above USD 112.36 will further support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. Upside moves that trade above the USD 125.28 resistance will target the USD 127.27 and USD 131.30 levels. Note: a new high above USD 125.28 has the potential to create a negative divergence with the RSI, warning we could see a momentum slowdown. Likewise, a close below USD 118.36 today (06/06) will warn that the USD 112.36 support could be tested, if broken we target the USD 109.89 and USD 105.70 levels. Technically bullish with a near-term upside target at USD 127.27, we are seeing an intraday correction making USD 118.36 and USD 112.36 the key levels to follow.
Iron ore
July Futures – We previously noted that the Elliott wave cycle to the downside had completed, indicating the futures had a bullish bias. Price has since traded above our near-term resistance levels with the July contract nearing the USD 145.75 fractal resistance, above this level we target the USD 147.50 and USD 154.60 resistance. A close below USD 141.01 today (07/06 SGX) will warn that the futures have entered a corrective phase; however, downside moves that hold at or above USD 135.18 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. Technically bullish supported by the RSI above 50, a note of caution on the intraday technical as we have the potential to create a negative divergence above USD 145.05. This is not a sell signal; it is a warning that we could see a momentum slowdown so will but need to be monitored, as we have the potential to enter a corrective phase soon.
Steel
July futures – technically bullish but with a neutral bias on the June last time, the roll into July has put the futures below the USD 1,086 support, meaning we now target the USD 9,47 low, below this level the technical is bearish. The intraday futures have produced a 5-wave pattern lower with a potential downside target at USD 941; however, we are on the 5th wave of this phase with intraday momentum indicators in divergence, warning we could soon be vulnerable to a test to the upside. Corrective moves higher that fail at or below USD 1,392 will remain vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the futures will have a neutral bias. Technically bearish, the 5-wave bear pattern on the intraday alongside a positive divergence with the RSI mean the futures are not considered a technical sell at these levels.
Tanker TD3
July Futures – the June futures moved higher resulting in the USD 9.261 fractal resistance being broken, price has since entered a corrective phase, the technical is now bullish but with a neutral bias. The July contract has traded above the USD 9.5040 fractal resistance meaning the technical is bullish based on the higher high, downside moves that hold at or above USD 9.1597 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. The RSI and its moving average are now above 50, indicating that momentum is supporting the upside move, suggesting downside support levels should hold if tested (support USD 9.3843, USD 9.2890, USD 9.1597). Upside moves above USD 9.6930 will target the USD 10.2580 high. Technically bullish with downside moves considered as countertrend, key support is at USD 9.1597.
Coking Coal
July Futures – Just a note to highlight that the June futures have now entered a corrective phase which the upside pattern and momentum had threatened. The downside move in the July futures have created a lower low, indicating the technical is bearish, with price now trading below the EMA support band. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 451 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. The RSI is below 50 with its moving average sloping to the downside, suggesting resistance levels should hold in the near-term (resistance USD 427, USD 437, USD 450). Technically bearish with upside moves considered as countertrend at this point.