Capesize

March Futures – Technically bearish last week A positive divergence on the 1-hour intraday had warned that we could see a small test to the upside resulting in the futures trading from USD 15,650 to USD 20,000. April futures – The roll in the futures created a bullish Gap of USD 4,000 which took the technical into bullish territory. Price continues to move higher supported by rising oil prices with the April futures trading to a high of USD 28,425. Using the William’s method we now have a near-term upside target at USD 31,156, above this level we target the USD 33,033 and USD 35,425 levels. Downside moves below USD 24,250 will warn the USD 23,345 – USD 20,322 Fibonacci support zone could be tested. Corrective moves lower that hold at or above USD 20,322 will support a longer-term bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. The carry on the index is now USD 13,742 which will need to be monitored, with rumours that the C3 and C5 are both fixing higher on the back of rising oil prices there is an expectancy that the carry should narrow in the coming days. If it does not the futures could be vulnerable to a technical pullback.

 

Panamax

April Futures – the downside move in the rolling front month took the futures into neutral territory, however the technical failed to make a new low resulting in higher pricing. The April contract has now made a higher high with price trading above our USD 29,208 target, highlighted in the morning technical. Price is now testing the USD 30,963 resistance; upside moves above this level will target the USD 33,200 and USD 36,021 levels. Downside moves that hold at or above USD 25,640 will support a bull argument, below this level the technical will have a neutral bias.  Intraday Elliott wave analysis would suggest that corrective moves lower should be against the trend, indicating we have another bull wave to come within this phase.

 

Supramax

April futures- We assumed last week that although the futures did not create a higher high, based on the Q2-22 and the Cal 23 Elliott wave cycles the rolling front month had entered a corrective phase. Further down the curve we have seen the futures move to new highs, indicating wave extension. The April contract remained in bullish territory and has now achieved our original upside target (pre-Russian invasion) of USD 34,587. Upside moves above this level will target the USD 36,615 and USD 39,200 resistance levels. Downside moves that hold at or above USD 29,797 will support a bull argument, below this level we will have a neutral bias. The RSI is now at 76.8 meaning it remains in divergence, above 79 the divergence will have failed suggesting suggest we are seeing further wave extension (like the back end of the curve). Intraday Elliott wave analysis on a lower time frame would suggest corrective moves lower are against the trend, indicating there is another bull wave to follow within this part of the cycle.

 

Oil

May futures- As noted last week the futures had entered a corrective phase but remained bullish based on the technical and the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. Price held above all key support levels with the futures trading through our near-term target of USD 107.11, if you follow the morning technical and our close reports you will have seen that we targeted the USD 117 and USD 125 levels also. Price moved higher this morning on the back of US comments regarding sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports resulting in the futures trading up to USD 139.13 in the Asian session. Price has since entered a corrective phase with the futures trading down do USD 119.04, meaning the intraday technical now has a neutral bias, Below USD 109.04 the intraday technical will be considered as bearish. Intraday Elliott wave analysis would suggest that corrective moves lower should in theory be countertrend, indicating there is further bull waves to come. Technically bullish, we remain conscious that there is a war in Europe with the threat of sanctions, an Iran agreement, and the release of strategic oil reserves all on the table, these could affect the psychological footprint on the market; however, based on the information to hand, we have an expectancy of further tests to the upside.

 

Iron Ore

April futures. The intraday technical had entered bullish territory last week but the daily technical remained bearish below USD 146.29 and neutral above, only above USD 157.25 was the daily technical bullish. With a lack of steel exports from Russia coupled with an expectation that we could see stimulus from the Chinese government, margins at mill rose, resulting in the futures trading above USD 157.25 taking the technical into bull territory. With the psychological footprint in the market changing, we noted on the daily reports that downside moves should be against the trend with further bull moves to come. Price is now pulling back on a negative divergence with the RSI (having traded higher), if we trade below USD 156.05 then we will be entering a higher timeframe corrective wave 4. However, downside moves that hold at or above the USD 144.78 level will support a longer-term bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. If we hold above the USD 156.05 level, then we still have the potential to trade as high as 174.97 within this phase of the cycle. Technically bullish, corrective moves lower should be countertrend based on the current Elliott wave cycle.

 

Steel

April futures- We had previously noted the futures looked vulnerable to a test to the upside and noted last week that this move should be considered as countertrend. However, we were conscious that the war in the Ukraine had the potential to increase the cost of steel production due to sanctions in the market. Price has moved higher to trade above the USD 1,464 level, meaning the psychological footprint in the market has now changed, the technical is bullish based on the higher high in the market. Downside moves that hold at or above USD 1,158 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. Intraday Elliott wave analysis would suggest that downside moves should be considered as countertrend, However, we remain conscious that the current upside move looks to be going parabolic, warning we could enter a corrective wave soon. Near-term resistance is at USD 1,670, USD 1,693, USD 1,820 with support at USD 1,330, USD 1,257, and USD 1,158.

 

Tanker TD3

April Futures – we noted last week that the futures had pushed higher due to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine, technically bullish, downside moves should be countertrend. The futures have entered a corrective phase but continue to hold above the USD 9.53 support, below this level will mean the technical has a neutral bias. Upside moves above USD 10.4770 will target the USD 10.7745 and USD 11.2435 resistance levels. Corrective moves below USD 9.04 will be bearish. Technically bullish with price currently holding above the USD 9.53 level, supporting a bull argument.

 

Coking Coal

April futures – As previously noted, we had an expectancy of higher prices based on the Elliott wave cycle, however the upside move came on the back of the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. The upside moves like many commodities has been parabolic; however, this has also pushed our momentum indicators to new highs, suggesting we are seeing a wave extension, meaning downside should be considered as countertrend at this point. Support is at USD 510, USD 482, and USD 443, corrective moves lower that hold at or above USD 443 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. Near-term resistance is at USD 602, USD 624, and USD 646.