Capesize
August Futures – Technically bullish last week with the futures in the early stages of a corrective phase. The price traded to a low of USD 26,000, meaning we held the USD 23,897 support, resulting in the futures moving higher. The moving averages are now flat indicating a lack of trend in the market, this is supported by the RSI which is neutral at 49; however, a bullish 3 river morning star candle pattern formed last week, warning that the futures are supported. Upside moves above the USD 30,250 fractal resistance will target the USD 32,750 and USD 35,625 levels. Likewise, downside moves that trade below USD 26,000 will imply that the correction is complex and suggest that the USD 23,897 support could come under pressure. A neutral RSI with the stochastic in the overbought territory is a warning that support levels could come under pressure in the near term; however, if the RSI moves above 50 the stochastic is less relevant. We remain technically bullish, but buy-side momentum has stalled due to the lack of trend in the market, the futures now need to trade above the USD 29,500 level, if we do then upside resistance levels should come under pressure.
Panamax
August Futures – Technically bearish last week with the USD 19,875 support looking vulnerable, if broken we targeted the USD 17,273 – USD 16,425 support zone. The futures have since traded to a low of USD 17,875, meaning we remain above the support zone. Technically bearish, upside moves that fail at or below USD 21,653 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. The intraday Elliott wave cycle is showing a 5-wave pattern lower from the move that started on 18/05, warning we have the potential to see a momentum slowdown within this phase of the cycle. However, using William’s approach, we have a near-term downside target of USD 17,188. Technically bearish, there are warning signs that we could see a momentum slowdown soon due to the 5-wave pattern and intraday divergence.
Supramax
August Futures – technically bearish last week with a downside target at USD 21,714, the futures have traded through our support level to a low of 19,750. The futures are rejecting the lows today on the back of a slowing index (Mon 11/07, price is currently at USD 20,675 which is USD 925 of the day’s low). However, upside moves that fail at or below USD 23,668 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Intraday Elliott wave analysis remains bearish, suggesting upside moves should be considered as a countertrend at this point.
Oil
September Futures – Technically bullish last week but with a neutral bias due to the depth of the pullback, the futures broke to the downside with price trading below the USD 105.70 fractal support. The technical is now bearish with price below all key moving averages supported by the RSI below 50. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 109.22 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Only above USD 114.75 will the daily technical have made a higher high and be considered bullish. Intraday Elliott wave analysis would suggest that the current upside move is considered a countertrend, implying the USD 98,50 support remains vulnerable.
Iron Ore
August Futures – The daily technical remains bearish having rejected the 8-21 period EMA’s with the RSI below 50. However, the intraday technical traded to a new low before trading above the USD 113.40 fractal resistance, suggesting the bearish wave cycle had been completed. If we trade back below the USD 106.45 to create a new low, it implies we are seeing some form of wave extension which would have bearish implications going forward. It is worth noting that the intraday onshore cycle has not been completed (but has achieved the minimum requirement for wave completion) and has a potential downside target at RMB 668. Technically bearish with support looking like it could go tomorrow.
Steel
August Futures – Technically bearish last week but not considered a technical sell due to the intraday divergence. The futures have moved lower (USD 30.00) but continue to produce an intraday divergence. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 983 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. The intraday Elliott wave cycle continues to warn that we have the potential to exhaust soon; for this reason, alongside the positive divergence, we maintain our view that the futures are not considered a technical sell at these levels.
Tankers TD3
August Futures – Technically bullish last week with downside moves considered as a countertrend due to the RSI making new highs. The futures did pull back but held support before trading above our upside resistance levels. Both the futures and the RSI have made a new high, supporting a bull argument; however, the current upside move is now over 161.8% the length of the previous bull wave, warning we have the potential to enter a corrective wave soon. Downside moves are still considered as a countertrend at this point, corrective moves that hold at or above USD 10.1897 will support a bull argument, below this level, the technical will have a neutral bias. Near-term resistance is now at USD 11.7634 and USD 12.0400.
Coking Coal
August Futures – Technically bearish last week with upside moves considered as countertrend, the futures continue to move lower with price trading through the USD 260 support level. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 325 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. The RSI continues to make new lows, supporting a bearish argument, with upside moves still considered a countertrend. Near-term support is now at USD 232 and USD 208.