Capesize
April Futures – We had a near-term upside target at USD 31,156 last week based on the William’s method of price projection, the futures traded up to a high of USD 31,000 before entering a corrective phase. Key support on the daily technical is at USD 21,232, downside moves that hold at or above this level will support a bull argument, below this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Likewise, a close on the daily chart above USD 30,166 will indicate that momentum is improving based on price, warning the USD 31,000 high could be tested. On the intraday technical near-term support is at USD 26,460, corrective moves lower that hold above this level will support a bull argument, if broken the futures will target USD 24,250. The longer-term trend remains bullish but in a corrective phase, with the USD 26,460 support looking vulnerable.
Panamax
April Futures – last week we noted that upside moves above USD 30,963 will target the USD 33,200 and USD 36,021 resistance levels. The futures traded to a high of USD 33,625 before entering a corrective phase. Our Elliott wave analysis would suggest that downside moves should be considered as countertrend; however, price is currently at USD 26,500, below USD 26,447 the pullback is considered as deep and the technical phase neutral. Only below USD 22,750 is the technical bearish. A close on the daily chart tomorrow above the USD 28,872 level would indicate that momentum is improving based on price, warning we could be in the early stages of a bullish wave 5. Price is on key support; below USD 26,447 we have a neutral bias, as the deep pullback will reduce the probability of the futures trading to a new high.
Supramax
April futures – Having just broken the USD 34,587 resistance last week we noted that the futures will target the USD 36,615 and USD 39,200 levels, price traded to a high of USD 38,000 before entering a corrective phase. Our Elliott wave analysis would suggest that this is a corrective wave 4, with key support at USD 30,575 (currently USD 31,500). Downside moves below this level will mean the futures will have a neutral bias based on the depth of the pullback, further support can be found at USD 29,157 and USD 26,750. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 35,790 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level price will target the USD 38,000 high. Wave analysis would suggest this is a countertrend corrective wave 4.
Oil
May Futures – The deep pullback in the oil means the technical has a neutral bias with the futures trading below the USD 105.60 fractal support, we now target the USD 100.60 level. We have noted in previous reports last week that if the futures hold around the USD 100.60 level, then we will have a bullish Gartley pattern in play, warning we could see a test to the upside. When we look at this correction on the intraday Elliott wave cycle, I see a positive divergence with the RSI with price looking like it is on wave 5 of wave C. From a technical perspective we may have little further downside in the correction, but it is not considered a technical sell at this point. Intraday market buyers will now be on the sidelines looking for downside phase/cycle completion and potential buy signals that could follow. Technically corrective but not a technical sell. A reactionary move based on Covid lockdowns in China.
Iron Ore
April futures-Technically bullish last week with downside moves considered to be countertrend with a potential upside target of USD 174.97. The futures did pullback, held support and traded to a high of USD 171.00. We noted on the morning report on the 09/03/22 the futures had produced an exhaustion pattern resulting in the futures trading down to USD 154.50, we followed this with further reports suggesting that below this level we target USD 148.25. The futures have now traded to a low of USD 142.85 meaning the pullback is considered as deep and the technical phase neutral. We highlight USD 140.62 as a level of interest as it is a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a 161.8% projection level of the A-B-C corrective phase. If we hold this level, we could see market buyers looking to test upside resistance (USD 158.89 – USD 167.15); however, if support is broken, we target the USD 132.35 fractal level. Technically bullish with a neutral bias, Key support is at USD 140.62.
Steel
April Futures-Last week we noted the futures had turned technically bullish with downside moves considered to be countertrend, key support was at USD 1,158. The futures entered a corrective phase, held support, and traded to a new high. The futures have potentially completed an intraday Elliott wave cycle based on the William’s approach, as the Fibonacci projection of waves 1 – 3 from the base of 4 gives us a potential upside target of USD 1,583, price has traded up to 1,585. Corrective moves that hold at or above USD 1,340 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. The USD 1,585 high has created a negative divergence with the RSI on the intraday technical, meaning new highs should not be considered a buy. Technically bullish the futures are not considered a technical buy and are potentially in the early stages of a corrective phase.
Tanker TD3
April Futures – The futures traded below the USD 9.53 and USD 9.04 support levels last week meaning the technical is now bearish based on the futures making a lower low. Price is below the 8-21 period EMA’s but the RSI and its moving average are above 50, momentum is warning we have the potential for another test to the upside. Corrective moves higher that fail at or below USD 9.863 will leave the technical vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the futures will target the USD 10,4770 high. Near-term support is between USD 8.5856 and USD 8.4908 with the potential to trade as low as USD 8.2912. Technically bearish, momentum would suggest that we could test the upside resistance zone (USD 9.3615 – USD 9.8633).
Coal
April futures- The futures continued to move higher with price trading above the USD 602-USD 624 resistance levels before starting to consolidate. As noted last week momentum indicators had moved to new highs suggesting we are seeing some form of Elliott wave extension, this would imply downside moves should be considered as countertrend. Corrective moves lower that hold at or above USD 454 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. Technically bullish with resistance at USD 646, USD 669, USD 701 with support at USD 530, USD 498, and USD 454. We should note we are trading around USD 200 above the 55-period EMA indicating we have a mean reversion gap in the market, this is not a sell signal but is warning that futures need to either correct to close the gap or consolidate and wait for the averages to catch up, indicating the technical is overextended at this point.