Capesize
April Futures – The RSI has moved below 50 with price now trading below the USD 21,232 support, from a technical perspective the trend is considered as neutral. Downside moves below USD 16,200 fractal support will create a lower low will meaning the technical is bearish. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 26,161 will leave the technical vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the futures will target the USD 29,000 high. Near-term price action in the April contract looks vulnerable; however, we roll into the May futures in a couple of days, and this is trading at a USD 7,000 premium to the April which based on today’s levels will put price above the USD 26,161. This could be significant for the technical as the seasonality chart starts moving higher in early April.
Panamax
April Futures – We highlighted last week that the technical had a neutral bias with upside moves that failed below the USD 30,725 resistance remaining vulnerable to further tests to the downside. The futures traded to a high of USD 30,750 but failed to hold above it with price once again correcting, suggesting the futures are potentially in a complex corrective Elliott wave 4. Upside moves above the USD 30,750 fractal resistance will be bullish, implying the USD 33,625 high could be tested. Likewise, downside moves below USD 27,037 (currently USD 27,262) will weaken the technical further, warning that the USD 25,125 fractal support could be tested. Seasonality is now leaning to the sell side with the index showing a negative divergence, the index remains bullish above USD 22,750 and bearish below. Technically neutral, there are warning signed that support levels could be tested and broken.
Supramax
April Futures – We noted last week that the futures had traded above the USD 35,195 resistance, meaning price had a bullish bias with the futures, if price could trade above and hold above this level then we would target the USD 38,000 high. Price failed to hold above the resistance level with the futures now testing the USD 31,603 level, if it holds it will support a bull argument, if broken we target the USD 29,750 fractal low; however, the longer-term trend remains bullish above USD 26,750. Like the Panamax seasonality is now leaning to the downside until mid-April with the index moving lower on the back of a negative divergence, this is warning that near-term support levels could be tested. Elliott wave analysis does still warn that we could have a test to the upside; however, the technical itself is neutral at this point.
Oil
May Futures – Price was trading at USD 115.00 last week with price targeting the USD 118.36 and USD 133.15 resistance levels, the futures traded to a high of USD 123.74 before correcting. If you read are morning technical reports you will have seen that we added a key resistance at USD 124.78, upside moves that failed at or below this level remained vulnerable to further tests to the downisde. Technically bullish based on price we are now trading at USD 112.75, the rejection of the USD 124.78 is warning that the Elliott wave cycle is potentially sill in a complex corrective wave 4. Downside moves that hold at or above USD 106.45 will support a bull argument, targeting the USD 124.78 level once again. below this level the futures will have a neutral bias with the potential to test the USD 96.93 fractal low. Technically bullish based on wave analysis, the rejection of our key resistance is warning the futures could be still in a complex corrective phase. If resistance is broken, we target the USD 133.15 level.
Ore
April Futures – The futures held above the USD 143.10 support last week resulting in price trading higher, the technical is bullish (based on a higher high) but remains vulnerable to a technical pullback below the USD 156.88 resistance, above this level we target the USD 160.69 and USD 167.15 resistance levels. Downside moves that hold above USD 147.20 will support a bull argument, below this level price will have neutral bias and target the USD 143.70 and USD 136.95 fractal supports. The technical is only bearish below USD 125.00. Technically bullish based on price, key resistance is at USD 156.88 as this is the 66% retracement of the last dominate bear wave down (Neely 61.8% plus 4%), meaning the futures remain vulnerable at this point.
Steel
April Future – Price continues to consolidate below the USD 1,585 high. As previously stated, corrective moves lower that hold at or above USD 1,330 will support a bull argument; likewise, upside moves above the USD 1,585 would suggest we remain in the intraday bullish impulse Elliott wave 5. Technically bullish based on price, the futures have made a lower high whilst the stochastic is overbought and the RSI is below its moving average, implying the futures are vulnerable to a technical pullback, making USD 1,330 a key support to follow.
Tanker TD3
April Futures – The upside move in the futures failed to test the lowest of our Fibonacci resistance levels with the futures finding resistance between the 8 – 21 period EMA’s, resulting in the futures moving lower once again. Upside moves above USD 8.2700 will target the Fibonacci resistance zone between USD 8.6286 – USD 9.4601; however, the futures remain vulnerable to further tests to the downside below USD 9.4601. Above this level price will target the USD 10.4770 high. Downside moves below USD 7.4860 will target the USD 6.9250 low. The RSI is below its moving average and has just failed at the 50 level, suggesting we remain vulnerable to further tests to the downside at this point.
Coal
April Futures – Technically bullish last week we still had a mean reversion gap of around USD 135 above the 55 period EMA, suggesting the support zone could be tested. The futures have moved lower with the mean reversion gap now closed, the futures are now at USD 478, corrective moves lower that hold at or above USD 454 will support a bull argument, below this level the futures will have a neutral bias. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 581 will suggest the futures remain in a complex corrective phase, leaving the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the futures will target the USD 635 high. Technically bullish, we remain in a corrective phase with the mean reversion gap now close, key support is at USD 454.