Capesize
July Futures – on the last report we noted that upside moves that failed at or below USD 35,505 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside. The futures traded to a high of USD 32,750 before trading below the USD 26,500 and USD 23,625 support levels, to a low of USD 22,875. Technically we remain bearish with price below all key moving averages supported by the RSI below 50. The intraday RSI is now showing a positive divergence, not a buy signal it does warn that we have the potential for a momentum slowdown. Upside moves that trade above the USD 26,625 resistance will create a higher high in the futures, taking it into bullish territory, however we have trend line resistance at USD 29,437 that we need to be aware of. Technically bearish with key support at USD 21,125, downside moves below this level will have further bearish implications for the technical, the intraday divergence will need to be monitored as a bullish close will warn resistance levels could be tested.
Panamax
July Futures – The futures traded below our key USD 22,750 support last week which was the base of the last dominant bull wave that started on the 25/02/22, the downside breakout warns we have the potential for further downside within this move. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 25,215 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Our intraday Elliott would suggest that upside moves should be considered as countertrend, implying upside resistance levels should hold if tested; near-term support is at USD 21,550 with further support at USD 20,078 and USD 18,825.
Supramax
July Futures – having held the USD 26,750 support the futures failed to trade above the USD 29,721 resistance (High USD 29,500), leaving the technical vulnerable to further tests to the downside. The futures traded below our key support at 26,750, warning there is further downside within this move. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 28,055 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Intraday Elliott wave analysis is bearish, suggesting upside resistance levels should hold if tested. Near-term support is at USD 25,215 with further support at USD 24,096 and USD 22,625.
Oil
August Futures – Technically bullish but in a corrective phase on the last report, the futures did trade above USD 124.40 to trade within 9 cents of the USD 125.28 fractal resistance. However, resistance held, resulting in the futures trading below the USD 118.55 and USD 112.36 support levels. The last dominant wave is between the 19/05 and 31/05 (USD 15.70 – USD 125.28), price remains within this range but has produced a deep pullback, meaning although bullish we have a neutral bias. A close above USD 114.45 will warn that the USD 119.2 resistance could be tested, if it holds then the futures are vulnerable to further tests to the downside; if broken it will warn that the USD 125.28 fractal resistance is vulnerable. Downside moves below USD 107.03 will target the USD 105.70 resistance, below this level the technical is bearish. Technically bullish but with a neutral bias.
Iron Ore
July Futures – We noted on the last report that the futures were technically bullish but with a neutral bias, downside moves below USD 132.55 would warn that the USD 130.10 support could come under pressure. A fractal breakout below USD 130.10 targeted the USD 123.45 and USD 118.60 support levels. The futures broke to the downside with price trading to a low of USD 106.65 before trading back up to USD 121.05. Upside moves on the daily chart that fail at or below USD 133.83 will leave the futures vulnerable to further test to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Intraday wave analysis is bearish, implying the current upside move is countertrend, warning that we still have the potential for another test to the downside. Key resistance on the intraday Elliott wave is at USD 125.06, upside moves that fail at or below this level will warn that we could be entering into a bearish wave five. Downside moves below USD 118.00 will target the USD 112.95 level in the near-term, with the potential to trade below the USD 106.65 low; based on the current high of USD 121.05, we would have a prospective downside target at USD 97.30.
Steel
July Futures – technically bearish on the last report we noted that that downside moves below the USD 985 level will target the USD 893 low. Price has broken to the downside but have yet to achieve the USD 893 level with price trading to a low of USD 915. We have a previous fractal low that has the potential to act as a resistance if tested, this is at USD 985; however, upside moves that fail at or below USD 997.50 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Only above USD 1,040 is it bullish. Intraday wave analysis is in divergence, warning we have the potential to base around these levels, if we do trade below the USD 9,15 low, we have further support at USD 893 and USD 882. Technically bearish but not considered a technical sell at these levels due to the intraday technical being in divergence.
Tankers TD3
July Futures – Technically bullish on the last report we were conscious of a small 5-wave pattern that had formed, warning we could enter a corrective phase soon. However, corrective moves lower that held above USD 9.1924 would support a bull argument. The futures entered a corrective phase, traded to a low of USD 9.2530 (held support) before moving higher. We remain technically bullish with price above all key moving averages supported by the RSI above 50, in theory we now target the USD 10.2580 high. The new high has created a negative divergence on both the RSI and the stochastic, not a sell signal it does warn we have the potential for a momentum slowdown and will need to be monitored. Downside moves that hold at or above USD 9.4509 will support a bull argument, below this level the technical will have a neutral bias, only below USD 9.2530 is it bearish. Technically bullish, the divergences will need to be monitored as they are warning buyside momentum could soon slowdown.
Coking Coal
July Futures – Technically bearish on the last report with downside moves that trade below the USD 359.50 level targeting the USD 350 and potentially the USD 317 level. The futures have moved lower with price trading down to USD 315. Upside moves that fail at or below USD 351 will leave the futures vulnerable to further tests to the downside, above this level the technical will have a neutral bias. Near-term support is now at USD 294 with a potential downside target as low as USD 264, the RSI is making new lows suggesting upside moves should be considered as counter trend at this point, above USD 370 the technical is bullish.