Iron ore continues to hold near its highs on the bullish sentiment from BHP earlier in the week. DCE futures produced a Doji star on the daily chart, signaling indecision is creeping into the market, warning that buyers and sellers are in balance.
Capesize futures closed the week lower after giving up Wednesday and Thursdays gains. A quite close to the week with the December futures down 3.5% to USD 13,200, Q1 21 futures were 2.4% lower and the Cal 21 0.8% lower.
Panamax futures have seen volume changing hand all week, with the December futures trading in a USD 300 range. Four of the five closes closes had a 10,700 handle this week. This accumulation distribution phase in high volume is setting up the market for the next move. The breakout will give directional bias and leave one side of the market offside in volume, suggesting we have the potential for a vol spike soon, as those on the wrong side look to exit. Dec closed the day unchanged with the Q1 2.1% lower at USD 8,300 and the Cal 21 0.9% lower at USD 9,925
Little report on Supramax with the flat close to yesterday and low volume.
Brent futures closed the European Session up 36 cents, 0.8%. Downside moves have failed to hold, as the market looks to be in a corrective phase at this point. Four weeks of gains on the back of Covid vaccine progress ahead of the OPEC+ ministerial gathering next week (Bloomberg) keep the weekly momentum on a bullish footing. A quiet day has capped a 7% gain this week with the futures targeting the USD 52.79 level. If we trade above that level it could change the footprint of the market; if we fail to trade above this level the weekly trend remains vulnerable. If we trade above it the long – term trend becomes neutral. Over to OPEC.
It is a wrap
Have a nice weekend
Data source FIS and Bloomberg
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