FIS Fuel Oil Morning Report 05/03/21

Brent crude futures for May rose 83 cents, or 1.2%, to $67.57 a barrel at 0609 GMT, and was on track for a 2% gain in the week. The European benchmark pushed throughout the morning to reach $68.00 by 0700GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 77 cents, or 1.2%, to $64.60 per barrel.

 

Both contracts surged by over 4% yesterday as the long-awaited OPEC meeting took place that was used to decide output quotas for the month of April. There was lots of sensitivity in the market in the lead up to the meeting that started later than scheduled,  with the market reacting to headlines rather than confirmed news, but it quickly became clear that the consensus was to rollover output cuts to April, with only Russia the key player keen to begin to increase supplies. Saudi Arabia also confirmed that it would keep the current levels of production the same, with a phased reintroduction of its 1 million barrel per day of voluntary cuts.

 

OPEC are well aware of the situation that is currently arising that oil prices are soaring yet end users of the physical crude such as refiners are yet to catch up as lockdown restrictions still weigh on the globally economy. With those participants in the oil consuming nations being hit on the increasing prices of Crude. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent price forecast by $5 to $75 per barrel in the second quarter and $80 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, while UBS raised its forecast for Brent to $75 per barrel and for WTI to $72 per barrel in the second half of 2021. (Reuters)

 

Quote of the day from yesterday’s meeting as the live stream was cut for public viewing whilst the cuts were discussed and debated: “Transparancy sometimes need lack of transparancy to be fully transparant”  (Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud)

 

 

INDEX: (MTD Estimates)

* Sing 380: 368.84

* Rott 3.5%: 361.44

* Sing 0.5%: 488.25

* Rott 0.5%: 472.38

 

 

OIL MARKET ROUND-UP:
* OPEC+ Squeezes Oil Production Tight to Protect Price Recovery
* Oil Sands Give OPEC a Boost With Half-Million-Barrel Output Cut
* Russia Needs April Oil Output Hike on Higher Demand: Novak
* China Oil Demand Growth Accelerates Amid Swift Factory Rebound
* Virus Surge Chokes Fuel Use in Top U.S. Buyers Mexico and Brazil
* China to Boost Oil Reserves, Enhance Mine Reserve Security

OTHER NEWS:
* Energy Hedge Fund Deep Basin Returning Capital After Retail Rout
* Smuggled Iran Oil May Have Polluted Israeli Coast, Analyst Says

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Colonial Interruptions, Diverted Fuel Ship
* EUROPE: Mercuria Trader Resigns; Pernis Hydrogen
* ASIA: Diesel Glut Seen Worsening; Stockpiles Rise

ECONOMIC DATA/EVENTS: (Times are London.)
* 7:30am: Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory
* 2:30pm: U.S. Census crude export data
* 6pm: Baker Hughes weekly rig count
* 6:30pm: ICE Brent weekly commitment of traders
* 8:30pm: CFTC weekly commitment of traders data

 

 

*Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC*                                          

Apr21    376.00   /            378.00

May21   372.25   /            374.25

Jun21     367.50   /            369.50

Jul21      362.25   /            364.25

Aug21    357.00   /            359.00

Sep21    351.50   /            353.50

Q2-21    371.75   /            373.75

Q3-21    356.75   /            358.75

Q4-21    340.75   /            342.75

Q1-22    331.75   /            334.75

CAL22    320.00   /            326.00

 

*Singapore 380 INDIC* 

Apr21    386.25   /            388.25

May21   383.75   /             385.75

Jun21     380.50   /            382.50

Jul21      376.75   /            378.75

Aug21    372.75   /            374.75

Sep21    368.50   /            370.50

Q2-21    383.50   /            385.50

Q3-21    372.75   /            374.75

Q4-21    359.50   /            361.50

Q1-22    351.00   /            354.00

CAL22    339.25   /            345.25

 

*Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*                                         

Apr21    484.25   /             489.25

May21   481.75   /             486.75

Jun21     479.25   /             484.25

Jul21      476.75   /             481.75

Aug21    474.25   /             479.25

Sep21    471.75   /             476.75

Q2-21    481.75   /             486.75

Q3-21    474.25   /             479.25

Q4-21    466.25   /             472.25

Q1-22    459.50   /             467.50

CAL22    452.00   /             460.00

 

*Sing VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*                                          

Apr21    506.25   /             511.25

May21   504.00   /             509.00

Jun21     501.75   /             506.75

Jul21      499.25   /             504.25

Aug21    497.00   /             502.00

Sep21    494.75   /             499.75

Q2-21    504.00   /             509.00

Q3-21    497.00   /             502.00

Q4-21    489.75   /             495.75

Q1-22    482.50   /             490.50

CAL22    473.25   /             481.25

 

*Sing 10ppm GO INDIC*                                           

Apr21    72.52     /             72.66

May21   72.44     /             72.64

Jun21     72.36     /             72.56

Jul21      72.22     /             72.42

Aug21    72.09     /             72.29

Sep21    71.94     /             72.14

Q2-21    72.40     /             72.70

Q3-21    72.03     /             72.33

Q4-21    71.46     /             71.76

Q1-22    70.78     /             71.08

CAL22    70.06     /             70.46

 

*ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC*                                        

Apr21    542.02   /             546.02

May21   542.54   /             546.54

Jun21     542.28   /             546.28

Jul21      541.78   /             545.78

Aug21    541.39   /             545.39

Sep21    540.99   /             544.99

Q2-21    542.30   /             546.30

Q3-21    541.39   /             545.39

Q4-21    537.63   /             541.63

Q1-22    530.22   /             534.22

CAL22    527.16   /             531.16

 

 

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