At 10:35 am Singapore time (0235 GMT), the ICE September Brent futures contract was down 18 cents/b (0.24%) from the previous close at $76.31/b, while the NYMEX August light sweet crude contract was down 23 cents/b (0.31%) at $75.02/b. Concerns about supply tightness have been heightened by the OPEC+ alliance’s ongoing stalemate over production quotas for August and beyond, while the outlook for demand recovery, especially in Asia, continues to be dampened by COVID-19 resurgences.
The International Energy Agency’s monthly oil market report released late July 13 highlighted concerns about dwindling supplies if the OPEC+ alliance remains unable to agree on increasing production quotas for August. “In that case, oil markets will tighten significantly as demand rebounds from last year’s COVID-induced plunge. The overhang in global oil stocks that built up last year has already been worked off, with OECD industry stocks now well below historical averages,” the IEA said in the report.
Furthermore, talks between US and Iran on a nuclear deal that could lift sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports have stalled, further adding to expectations of supply tightness. “Any hopes of additional Iranian oil hitting the market also appear to be fading. Talks on a nuclear deal and subsequent removal of sanctions on Iran are unlikely to resume until after the Islamic Republic installs a new president next month,” ANZ analysts said in a July 14 note.
Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute reported that US crude supplies fell 4.1 million barrels in the week ended July 9, according to sources, in line with market expectations of a drawdown in US inventories. U.S. oil demand has soared to new heights as the nation rebounds from the pandemic, with gasoline and diesel consumption returning to pre-virus levels. (S&P Global Platts and Bloomberg)
INDEX: (MTD Estimates)
* Sing 380: 413.45
* Rott 3.5%: 398.33
* Sing 0.5%: 538.59
* Rott 0.5%: 525.36
OIL MARKET ROUND-UP:
* Iran Talks Seen Withering Until August as Oil Market Heats Up
* U.K. Vows to End Sales of New Petrol and Diesel HGVs by 2040
* Nigeria to Sell 36 Assets to Boost Revenue as Oil Earnings Fall
* API Reports U.S. Crude Stockpiles Fell 4.079M Bbl Last Week
* New York Jet Fuel Hits 11-Week High as Airports Become Busier
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Aug21 405.25 / 407.25
Sep21 401.25 / 403.25
Oct21 397.50 / 399.50
Nov21 394.00 / 396.00
Dec21 391.00 / 393.00
Jan22 388.50 / 390.50
Q4-21 394.25 / 396.25
Q1-22 386.25 / 388.25
Q2-22 379.50 / 381.50
Q3-22 371.25 / 374.25
CAL22 374.75 / 377.75
Singapore 380 INDIC
Aug21 416.75 / 418.75
Sep21 414.75 / 416.75
Oct21 412.00 / 414.00
Nov21 409.50 / 411.50
Dec21 407.25 / 409.25
Jan22 405.00 / 407.00
Q4-21 409.50 / 411.50
Q1-22 403.00 / 405.00
Q2-22 396.75 / 398.75
Q3-22 389.00 / 392.00
CAL22 392.50 / 395.50
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Aug21 528.75 / 533.75
Sep21 525.75 / 530.75
Oct21 523.00 / 528.00
Nov21 520.25 / 525.25
Dec21 517.50 / 522.50
Jan22 514.75 / 519.75
Q4-21 520.25 / 525.25
Q1-22 512.00 / 517.00
Q2-22 503.25 / 509.25
Q3-22 495.75 / 501.75
CAL22 499.75 / 505.75
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Aug21 547.00 / 552.00
Sep21 544.25 / 549.25
Oct21 541.50 / 546.50
Nov21 539.00 / 544.00
Dec21 536.50 / 541.50
Jan22 533.75 / 538.75
Q4-21 539.00 / 544.00
Q1-22 531.00 / 536.00
Q2-22 522.25 / 528.25
Q3-22 514.75 / 520.75
CAL22 518.75 / 524.75
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Aug21 82.06 / 82.20
Sep21 81.93 / 82.13
Oct21 81.70 / 81.90
Nov21 81.33 / 81.53
Dec21 80.96 / 81.16
Jan22 80.64 / 80.84
Q4-21 81.35 / 81.55
Q1-22 80.34 / 80.54
Q2-22 79.55 / 79.75
Q3-22 78.99 / 79.19
CAL22 79.17 / 79.57
Ice Gasoil Swap
Aug21 617.69 / 619.69
Sep21 616.34 / 618.34
Oct21 613.29 / 615.29
Nov21 610.85 / 612.85
Dec21 609.02 / 611.02
Jan22 607.23 / 609.23
Q4-21 611.05 / 613.05
Q1-22 605.54 / 607.54
Q2-22 597.70 / 599.70
Q3-22 594.34 / 596.34
CAL22 595.98 / 598.98
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