At 10:25 am Singapore time (0225 GMT), the ICE November Brent futures contract was up 32 cents/b (0.44%) from the previous settle at $73.83/b, while the NYMEX October WTI contract was up 36 cents/b (0.51%) at $70.81/b.
Supply concerns were compounded by the emergence of Tropical Storm Nicholas on the Texas Gulf Coast as neighbouring Louisiana and US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas producers continue to pick up from the devastation of Hurricane Ida two weeks ago. However the National Hurricane Center said Nicholas, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, was expected to be more of a rain event as it makes landfall in the coming hours, unlike Ida with Category 4 winds. There were few reports of refinery shutdowns ahead of Nicholas, with most refiners on the Texas coast and in western Louisiana monitoring the storm’s progress and implementing preparedness plans. (S&P Global Platts)
OPEC released its latest monthly market report yesterday in which they made some upward revisions to their demand forecasts for 2022. OPEC is expecting that oil demand will grow by 4.15MMbbls/d (an increase of 870Mbbls/d from their previous forecast) next year to average 100.83MMbbls/d, which is above pre-pandemic levels. There was little change to demand growth forecasts for 2021. The group expects demand this year to grow by 5.96MMbbls/d. While on the supply side, some downward revisions were made to non-OPEC supply for 2021 as a result of Hurricane Ida, disruptions to Mexican output and lower North Sea production. (ING)
On the calendar for today, the IEA will release its latest monthly market report, which will include its forecasts for global oil supply and demand for the remainder of this year and 2022.
OIL MARKET ROUND-UP:
* Storm Nicholas Becomes a Hurricane on Path to Houston
* Tankers Flee Deeper Into Gulf as Nicholas Heads for Texas
* Singapore’s Low-Sulfur Marine Fuel Sales Drop for Fifth Month
* Shell Removes Workers from Gulf Platform Ahead of Nicholas
* U.S. Gulf Had 793,522 B/D of Oil Production Shut Monday: BSEE
* U.S. August Drilled, Uncompleted Wells Fall to 5,713: EIA
* EIA Sees U.S. Shale-Oil Rising 66K B/D to 8.14M B/D in Oct.
* U.S. Shale Gas Output Seen Rising 157 mmcf/d in Sept.: EI
*Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC*
Oct21 397.75 / 399.75
Nov21 392.25 / 394.25
Dec21 388.00 / 390.00
Jan22 384.75 / 386.75
Feb22 382.50 / 384.50
Mar22 380.50 / 382.50
Q4-21 392.50 / 394.50
Q1-22 382.50 / 384.50
Q2-22 376.25 / 378.25
Q3-22 369.00 / 372.00
CAL22 369.25 / 375.25
*Singapore 380 INDIC*
Oct21 421.25 / 423.25
Nov21 411.50 / 413.50
Dec21 406.00 / 408.00
Jan22 401.75 / 403.75
Feb22 399.25 / 401.25
Mar22 397.00 / 399.00
Q4-21 412.75 / 414.75
Q1-22 399.25 / 401.25
Q2-22 392.75 / 394.75
Q3-22 386.25 / 389.25
CAL22 386.50 / 392.50
*Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Oct21 509.00 / 514.00
Nov21 506.00 / 511.00
Dec21 503.25 / 508.25
Jan22 500.50 / 505.50
Feb22 498.00 / 503.00
Mar22 495.50 / 500.50
Q4-21 506.25 / 511.25
Q1-22 498.00 / 503.00
Q2-22 490.25 / 496.25
Q3-22 482.50 / 490.50
CAL22 486.00 / 494.00
*Sing VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Oct21 533.25 / 538.25
Nov21 528.50 / 533.50
Dec21 524.75 / 529.75
Jan22 522.00 / 527.00
Feb22 519.25 / 524.25
Mar22 516.50 / 521.50
Q4-21 529.00 / 534.00
Q1-22 519.25 / 524.25
Q2-22 511.25 / 517.25
Q3-22 503.50 / 511.50
CAL22 507.25 / 515.25
*Sing 10ppm GO INDIC*
Oct21 81.12 / 81.26
Nov21 80.65 / 80.85
Dec21 80.24 / 80.44
Jan22 79.94 / 80.14
Feb22 79.71 / 79.91
Mar22 79.51 / 79.71
Q4-21 80.60 / 80.90
Q1-22 79.67 / 79.97
Q2-22 79.16 / 79.46
Q3-22 78.72 / 79.02
CAL22 78.61 / 79.01
*ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC*
Oct21 615.59 / 619.59
Nov21 612.04 / 616.04
Dec21 609.11 / 613.11
Jan22 607.06 / 611.06
Feb22 604.93 / 608.93
Mar22 602.41 / 606.41
Q4-21 612.25 / 616.25
Q1-22 604.80 / 608.80
Q2-22 598.88 / 602.88
Q3-22 595.08 / 599.08
CAL22 597.04 / 601.04
For more information please contact
FIS Oil Desk
info@freightinvestor.com
UK number: +44 (0) 207 090 1134
Shanghai number: +86 (0)21 63012568
Singapore: +65 87984987
Luke Longhurst
Email: LukeL@freightinvestor.com
Mobile: (+44) 7966 968761
Ricky Forman
Email: RickyF@freightinvestor.com
Mobile: (+44) 7868 708719
Sam Twyford
Email: SamT@freightinvestor.com
Mobile: (+44) 7729 118643
Jessie Deng
Email: jessied@freightinvestor.com
Mobile: (+86)1352 4516743
Jarryd Smith
Email: jarryds@freightinvestor.com
Mobile: (+65) 87984987
The information provided in this communication is not intended for retail clients. It is general in nature only and does not constitute advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any swap or other financial instruments, nor constitute any recommendation on our part. The information has been prepared without considering your investment objectives, financial situation, or knowledge and experience. This material is not a research report and is not intended as such. FIS is not responsible for any trading decisions taken based on this communication. Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives, and options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. You are advised to perform an independent investigation to determine whether a transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without our prior written consent. Freight Investor Services Ltd (FIS) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 211452) and is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Freight Investor Services PTE Ltd (‘FIS PTE’) is a private limited company, incorporated and registered in Singapore with company number 200603922G, and has subsidiary offices in India and Shanghai. Freight Investor Solutions DMCC (‘FIS DMCC’) is a private limited company, incorporated and registered in Dubai with company number DMCC1225. Further information about FIS including the location of its offices can be found on our website at www.freightinvestorservices.com