U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 4 cents, or 0.07%, to $59.96 a barrel by 0552 GMT. Brent crude was down 10 cents, or 0.16%, to $63.18 a barrel. After what seemed to be a huge correction, with brent falling off by over 8% on Thursday’s trading. Oil had edged up in Asia’s morning trading after a 7% drop on Thursday as physical buyers leapt at the chance to load up on cheap oil according to analysts.
The culmination of this week’s news regarding the safety of vaccines, the difficulty in supply chains for other vaccines and fresh lockdowns as a result are all factors that seemed to have contributed in some way to the slow decline in oil prices yesterday. Some sources suspect that there was an unwinding of a long position that has created a snowball effect as the futures have broken four of Gann support lines in as many hours, with prices being supressed as a result, but others are hinting at the market being generally over valued for the current state of situation regarding lockdown and virus cases that persist in the world – such as in some regions of France who will begin a 4-week lockdown from today.
Brazil have recorded its second deadliest day since the pandemic began with 2,724 deaths and India have recorded the highest case figure count in almost three months. These figures demonstrate the malaise that still exists in the economy and the real risk that the virus could halt any progress made to the efforts so far, with oil reacting negatively to any step-backs. (Reuters)
Goldman Sachs are seeing this opportunity as a time to buy oil as the Wall Street bank see the oil market rebalancing later in the year. Their forecast of oil prices hitting $75 and $80 in Q2 and Q3 respectively, now seem more difficult than previously thought. “We estimate that the oil market has remained in a large 2.5 million bpd deficit since February despite our estimate that Iran exports have increased by 0.7 million bpd year-to-date,” Goldman said in a note dated March 18. (Reuters)
INDEX: (MTD Estimates)
* Sing 380: 388.87
* Rott 3.5%: 373.68
* Sing 0.5%: 501.45
* Rott 0.5%: 481.19
OIL MARKET ROUND-UP:
* Oil’s Plunge Was Sign of a Market That Got Too Bullish, Too Fast
* Pemex’s Onshore Drilling Leads to Big Gas Finds, Less Oil
* China Diesel Exports Jumped in February on Weak Local Demand
* Fuel Oil Tanker Rates to Gulf of Mexico Jump 6% to YTD High
* Mideast-Europe Fuel: Flows Slide Amid Weak Diesel Demand
* Gasoil Stockpiles Fall in Europe’s ARA Region
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Apr21 346.25 / 348.25
May21 344.25 / 346.25
Jun21 340.50 / 342.50
Jul21 336.00 / 338.00
Aug21 331.25 / 333.25
Sep21 325.75 / 327.75
Q2-21 343.50 / 345.50
Q3-21 331.00 / 333.00
Q4-21 315.25 / 317.25
Q1-22 308.00 / 311.00
CAL22 304.25 / 307.25
Singapore 380 INDIC
Apr21 360.00 / 362.00
May21 357.50 / 359.50
Jun21 354.50 / 356.50
Jul21 351.00 / 353.00
Aug21 347.00 / 349.00
Sep21 342.75 / 344.75
Q2-21 357.25 / 359.25
Q3-21 346.75 / 348.75
Q4-21 334.75 / 336.75
Q1-22 328.00 / 331.00
CAL22 325.00 / 328.00
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Apr21 437.50 / 442.50
May21 437.00 / 442.00
Jun21 436.25 / 441.25
Jul21 435.25 / 440.25
Aug21 434.25 / 439.25
Sep21 433.25 / 438.25
Q2-21 437.00 / 442.00
Q3-21 434.25 / 439.25
Q4-21 430.25 / 436.25
Q1-22 426.00 / 432.00
CAL22 419.75 / 425.75
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Apr21 458.25 / 463.25
May21 458.00 / 463.00
Jun21 457.50 / 462.50
Jul21 456.75 / 461.75
Aug21 455.75 / 460.75
Sep21 454.75 / 459.75
Q2-21 458.00 / 463.00
Q3-21 455.75 / 460.75
Q4-21 452.50 / 458.50
Q1-22 448.75 / 454.75
CAL22 443.00 / 449.00
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Apr21 66.58 / 66.72
May21 66.71 / 66.91
Jun21 66.80 / 67.00
Jul21 66.88 / 67.08
Aug21 66.94 / 67.14
Sep21 66.96 / 67.16
Q2-21 66.70 / 66.90
Q3-21 66.92 / 67.12
Q4-21 66.76 / 66.96
Q1-22 66.41 / 66.61
CAL22 66.09 / 66.49
Ice Gasoil Swap
Apr21 498.76 / 500.76
May21 501.05 / 503.05
Jun21 502.63 / 504.63
Jul21 503.72 / 505.72
Aug21 504.68 / 506.68
Sep21 505.72 / 507.72
Q2-21 500.80 / 502.80
Q3-21 504.71 / 506.71
Q4-21 505.40 / 507.40
Q1-22 507.61 / 509.61
CAL22 511.83 / 514.83
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