At 10:30 am Singapore time (0230 GMT), the ICE December Brent futures contract was down 4 cents/b (0.05%) from the previous close at $84.29/b, while the NYMEX November light sweet crude contract fell 5 cents/b (0.06%) at $82.39/b.
OPEC+ misses target again, as some members struggle to raise oil output.
**VLSFO strengthens amid halt at Sines refinery
**Arbitrage opportunities heard limited
The European very low sulphur fuel oil market was seeing strength Oct. 18, as the market expected supply to tighten in the Mediterranean amid a halt in the crude distillation unit at Portugal’s Sines refinery, sources said.
Investor confidence took a hit overnight after data showed US industrial production fell by 1.3% on the month in September, much weaker than the expected 0.1% rise. In addition, China’s economy grew by a relatively paltry 4.9% in the third quarter from a year earlier, down from a 7.9% growth in the second quarter. The weak economic data contributed to both contracts pulling back overnight from multi-year highs to end the day mixed. The front-month ICE Brent contract settled lower by 53 cents/b from a three-year high reached earlier in the session, while the front-month NYMEX crude contract settled up 16 cents/b, retreating from a seven-year high intra-day. (S&P Global Platts)
The US Energy Information Administration said Oct. 18 in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report that US shale oil production is estimated to jump by 76,000 b/d to 8.2 million b/d in November, poised to be the biggest month-on-month gain this year. The bulk of projected activity increases for the month ahead stem from the Permian, which is set to rise 62,000 b/d in November to 4.88 million b/d, Jozef Lieskovsky, chief analyst on the DPR, said during a monthly EIA webcast. It would be the West Texas/New Mexico’s biggest monthly gain this year. Recent weather reports have pointed to a warmer-than-expected weather in the US and Europe for the rest of October, likely putting a further dampener on oil demand, though the long-term forecast for the next few months still indicate a colder-than-expected winter. (S&P Global Platts)
OIL MARKET ROUND-UP (Bloomberg):
* Permian Oil Output Is Nearing Record Pre-Pandemic Levels
* Mercuria’s Dunand Says $100 a Barrel Is Possible This Winter
* OPEC+ Once Again Fails to Pump Enough to Meet Its Output Target
* Russia Keeps Grip on Gas Supply, Pushing Prices Up in Europe
* U.S. September Drilled, Uncompleted Wells Fall to 5,385: EIA
* EIA Sees U.S. Shale-Oil Rising 77K B/D to 8.22M B/D in Nov.
* U.S. Gasoline Imports From Europe Drop to 9-Week Low
* China’s September Fuel Exports Rise From Lowest Since 2015
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Nov21 460.75 / 462.75
Dec21 456.50 / 458.50
Jan22 452.75 / 454.75
Feb22 449.50 / 451.50
Mar22 446.25 / 448.25
Apr22 442.75 / 444.75
Q1-22 449.50 / 451.50
Q2-22 439.25 / 441.25
Q3-22 428.00 / 430.00
Q4-22 415.00 / 418.00
CAL22 432.50 / 435.50
CAL23 390.00 / 398.00
Singapore 380 INDIC
Nov21 478.25 / 480.25
Dec21 474.75 / 476.75
Jan22 471.00 / 473.00
Feb22 467.25 / 469.25
Mar22 463.75 / 465.75
Apr22 460.50 / 462.50
Q1-22 467.50 / 469.50
Q2-22 457.50 / 459.50
Q3-22 447.75 / 449.75
Q4-22 437.50 / 440.50
CAL22 452.25 / 455.25
CAL23 413.75 / 421.75
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Nov21 571.75 / 576.75
Dec21 568.00 / 573.00
Jan22 564.25 / 569.25
Feb22 559.75 / 564.75
Mar22 555.75 / 560.75
Apr22 551.75 / 556.75
Q1-22 559.75 / 564.75
Q2-22 548.00 / 553.00
Q3-22 536.25 / 542.25
Q4-22 525.75 / 531.75
CAL22 542.25 / 548.25
CAL23 501.50 / 510.50
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Nov21 595.25 / 600.25
Dec21 591.75 / 596.75
Jan22 588.00 / 593.00
Feb22 584.75 / 589.75
Mar22 581.00 / 586.00
Apr22 577.25 / 582.25
Q1-22 584.50 / 589.50
Q2-22 573.25 / 578.25
Q3-22 561.50 / 567.50
Q4-22 551.50 / 557.50
CAL22 567.25 / 573.25
CAL23 525.25 / 534.25
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Nov21 96.38 / 96.52
Dec21 95.44 / 95.64
Jan22 94.60 / 94.80
Feb22 93.87 / 94.07
Mar22 93.14 / 93.34
Apr22 92.43 / 92.63
Q1-22 93.85 / 94.05
Q2-22 91.73 / 91.93
Q3-22 89.71 / 89.91
Q4-22 88.14 / 88.34
CAL22 90.76 / 91.16
CAL23 84.46 / 84.86
Ice Gasoil Swap
Nov21 729.07 / 731.07
Dec21 723.33 / 725.33
Jan22 717.71 / 719.71
Feb22 711.99 / 713.99
Mar22 705.99 / 707.99
Apr22 699.28 / 701.28
Q1-22 711.90 / 713.90
Q2-22 694.75 / 696.75
Q3-22 682.14 / 684.14
Q4-22 670.32 / 672.32
CAL22 689.28 / 692.28
CAL23 641.60 / 645.60
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