Fuel Oil Morning Report 20/05/21

At 10:49 am Singapore time (0249 GMT), the ICE Brent July contract rose 5 cents/b (0.08%) from the May 19 settle at $66.71/b, while the June NYMEX light sweet crude contract was up 6 cents/b (0.09%) at $63.41/b.

 

EIA week ending 5/14

Crude oil: +1.3M

Gasoline: -2.0M

Distillates: -2.3M

Refiner utilz: 86.3%

Impld mogas demand: 9.22Mbpd

 

ICE Brent futures settled at over 3% down on close last night as the US and Iran seem to be close to talks in Vienna with regards to the nuclear deal which some had suggested would come to light yesterday, but it seems as if the market will be left to mull it over the weekend with sources saying that an outcome may be announced early next week.

 

EIA figures released yesterday were somewhat more positive than what analysts had expected,  but they proved to be a lot more bearish than those of the API from Tuesday across the board, with the crude build being larger and the product draws being shallower.

 

Weather in the US Gulf is beginning to cause concern as meteorologists have predicted that this hurricane season could see above average activity which would put refineries under pressure of closures and put oil rigs at risk of needed to evacuate workers, putting a halt to operations.

 

Finally, looking to India, and the market is getting a better idea of the impact the latest wave of Covid-19 has had on domestic oil demand. The largest refiner in the country, Indian Oil said that gasoline and diesel sales have fallen by around 15-20% due to the latest wave. As a result, the refiner has reduced operating rates at its plants from an average of a little more than 96% in April to around 84% at the moment. A resurgence in Covid-19 cases across parts of Asia is doing little to support the market in the near term.

 

In fuel, the HSFO barges crack as well as the front fogos halted their steep decline from the past two days with the crack opening this morning at -11.30 and the front Singapore fogo printing at -72.25 early morning.

 

 

INDEX: (MTD Estimates)

* Sing 380: 377.24

* Rott 3.5%: 366.52

* Sing 0.5%: 490.45

* Rott 0.5%: 476.25

 

 

OIL MARKET ROUND-UP:
* Oil’s Key Spread Takes a Hit as Iranian Supply May Return

* Oil Market Gets a Boost as Top Asian Refiners Scoop Up Cargoes
* China April Gasoline Output Rose 17.4% Y/y to 11.802m Tons
* China Lifts Iraq Oil Imports While Cutting Supply From Elsewhere
* Gulf Coast Gasoline Builds on Colonial Outage: EIA Takeaways
* Europe’s Covid-Crushed Oil Refiners See Hope as Demand Gains

 

 

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC                                 

Jun21    350.50   /             352.50

Jul21      350.00   /             352.00

Aug21   348.25   /             350.25

Sep21    344.75   /             346.75

Oct21    340.75   /             342.75

Nov21   336.75   /             338.75

Q3-21    347.50   /             349.50

Q4-21    337.00   /             339.00

Q1-22    330.50   /             332.50

Q2-22    325.50   /             328.50

CAL22    323.50   /             326.50

 

Singapore 380 INDIC                                     

Jun21    358.25   /             360.25

Jul21      359.50   /              361.50

Aug21   359.75   /             361.75

Sep21    358.50   /             360.50

Oct21    355.75   /             357.75

Nov21   353.25   /             355.25

Q3-21    359.25   /             361.25

Q4-21    353.50   /             355.50

Q1-22    348.25   /             350.25

Q2-22    343.25   /             346.25

CAL22    340.75   /             343.75

 

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                 

Jun21    457.50   /              462.50

Jul21      458.00   /              463.00

Aug21   458.75   /              463.75

Sep21    458.75   /              463.75

Oct21    458.50   /              463.50

Nov21   457.75   /              462.75

Q3-21    458.50   /              463.50

Q4-21    457.75   /              462.75

Q1-22    455.00   /              461.00

Q2-22    451.50   /              457.50

CAL22    448.25   /              454.25

 

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                     

Jun21    472.50   /              477.50

Jul21      474.50   /              479.50

Aug21   476.00   /              481.00

Sep21    477.00   /              482.00

Oct21    477.25   /              482.25

Nov21   477.50   /              482.50

Q3-21    476.00   /              481.00

Q4-21    477.50   /              482.50

Q1-22    475.75   /              481.75

Q2-22    472.50   /              478.50

CAL22    469.50   /              475.50

 

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC                                   

Jun21    73.36     /              73.50

Jul21      73.16     /              73.36

Aug21   73.01     /              73.21

Sep21    72.90     /              73.10

Oct21    72.75     /              72.95

Nov21   72.52     /              72.72

Q3-21    73.00     /              73.20

Q4-21    72.50     /              72.70

Q1-22    71.91     /              72.11

Q2-22    71.50     /              71.70

CAL22    71.25     /              71.65

 

Ice Gasoil Swap                                               

Jun21    550.52   /              552.52

Jul21      551.46   /              553.46

Aug21   552.26   /              554.26

Sep21    552.93   /              554.93

Oct21    552.09   /              554.09

Nov21   549.54   /              551.54

Q3-21    552.20   /              554.20

Q4-21    549.89   /              551.89

Q1-22    546.14   /              548.14

Q2-22    540.10   /              542.10

CAL22    538.49   /              541.49

 

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info@freightinvestor.com
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Email: LukeL@freightinvestor.com

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Mobile: (+65) 87984987

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