Fuel Oil Morning Report 23/02/21

 

Brent crude was up $1.10, or 1.7%, at $66.34 a barrel by 0437 GMT, after earlier hitting a high of $66.79. U.S. crude rose 92 cents, or 1.5%, to $62.62 a barrel, having reached a session high of $63. Both benchmarks have risen more than 2% on Tuesday after climbing nearly 4% in the previous session.

 

The UK was given some long-awaited positive news regarding the process of coming out of what has felt like an arduous stint in a full lockdown to control the spread of different COVID-19 variants, with the general consensus being that many other countries will follow suit and the global economy will start to pick up. Analysts are seeing this as the perfect antidote to the increasing supply as refineries in the US begin to restore capacity, with the summer pick up in crude able to cope with any potential supply gluts. (Reuters)

 

Singapore has released plans to boots air travel over the past couple of days, in a bid to facilitate face to face meetings and invigorate the economy, which in turn would see a pickup in demand for Jet Fuel. Yet it seems that international travelers, especially for business travel remain cautious as global vaccines are not fully rolled out at the same rate as in the UK or some Asian economies. (S&P Global Platts)

 

US shale producers face distruptions in bringing 2 million barrels of Crude per day online as they battle with power outages as the fallout from the deep freeze continues. Although it is thought that 85% of production is back online, there is still factors that are hindering some areas of production, which may take at least two weeks to bring online. (Reuters)

 

Refined product cracks came under pressure amid the refinery restarts. The front-month ICE New York Harbor RBOB crack versus Brent retreated to around $15.75/b, in from a one-year high of $16.42/b on Feb. 19, while the ICE New York Harbor heating oil crack versus Brent edged down to $12.54/b from $13.13/b on Feb. 19. (S&P Global Platts)

 

 

MARKETS NEWS:
* Brent Oil’s Prompt Timespread Climbs to $1/Bbl in Backwardation
* Trafigura Sees ‘Strong’ Oil Market Heading Into Summer
* Socar Trading Head Expects Oil to Hit $80 a Barrel This Year
* Iraq Decides Against Oil-Supply Deal With China’s Zhenhua
* U.S. Imports of European Gasoline Rebound, Diesel Flows Limited
* Oil Search Maintains 2021 Production 25.5 to 28.5 Mmboe
* Iranian Vessel Discharges Fuel at Venezuela El Palito Refinery

OTHER NEWS:

* Reliance to Spinoff Oil-to-Chemicals Unit With $25 Billion Loan
* Former Saudi Oil Minister Ahmed Yamani Has Died, Ekhbariya Says
* Commodity Returns Hit Three-Year High With Oil Leading the Way
* Oil Giant Petrobras Sheds $19 Billion in Value Over Two Days
* Biden’s Interior Nominee Says Fossil Fuels Will Play Major Role
* Blackstone-Backed Shale Producer Vine Energy Files to Go
Public

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* EUROPE: ICE Gasoil Bets Rise; BP Hydrocracker Halts
* ASIA: Surge in Flows to Americas; Fuel Smuggling

ECONOMIC DATA/EVENTS: (Times are London)
* International Petroleum Week, or “IP Week” in London, usually an annual meeting of hundreds of oil traders, will be held virtually, with official conference program run by Energy Institute lasting Feb. 23-25
** First day speakers include Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne
* 9:30pm: API weekly report on U.S. oil inventories
* EARNINGS: Western Midstream Partners

ANALYST VIEWS/COLUMNS:
* U.S. Gasoline Demand Won’t Fully Recover This Year or Next: FGE
* China Oil Inventories Rise for Third Week to 1.01b Bbls: Kayrros
* Morgan Stanley Raises 3Q Brent Crude Forecast to $70/Bbl
* OPEC+ to Add Over 1.3M B/D of Supply as Brent at $60-$65: BofA
* Clean Fuels Held at Sea Near Singapore Rise Since Friday: Kpler

 

Good Morning, seeing abit of strength in the fogo this morning and in turn seeing strength in the VLSFO flat price as well, Brent up again 1.4% from the close.

 

 

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC                               

Mar21   361.50   /            363.50

Apr21    359.25   /            361.25

May21   356.25   /            358.25

Jun21     352.25   /            354.25

Jul21      348.00   /            350.00

Aug21    343.50   /            345.50

Q2-21    356.00   /            358.00

Q3-21    343.50   /            345.50

Q4-21    329.00   /            331.00

Q1-22    319.25   /            322.25

CAL22    310.50   /            313.50

 

Singapore 380 INDIC                                   

Mar21   374.00   /            376.00

Apr21    372.25   /             374.25

May21   370.00   /            372.00

Jun21     367.00   /            369.00

Jul21      363.75   /            365.75

Aug21    360.25   /            362.25

Q2-21    369.75   /            371.75

Q3-21    360.25   /            362.25

Q4-21    346.75   /            348.75

Q1-22    340.25   /            343.25

CAL22    330.50   /            333.50

 

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC 

Mar21   475.25   /             480.25

Apr21    472.75   /             477.75

May21   470.25   /             475.25

Jun21     467.75   /             472.75

Jul21      465.25   /             470.25

Aug21    462.75   /             467.75

Q2-21    470.25   /             475.25

Q3-21    462.50   /             467.50

Q4-21    452.00   /             458.00

Q1-22    446.25   /             452.25

CAL22    438.25   /             444.25

 

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC

Mar21   500.25   /             505.25

Apr21    497.00   /             502.00

May21   494.25   /             499.25

Jun21     491.75   /             496.75

Jul21      489.25   /             494.25

Aug21    486.75   /             491.75

Q2-21    494.25   /             499.25

Q3-21    486.75   /             491.75

Q4-21    476.00   /             482.00

Q1-22    469.75   /             475.75

CAL22    462.25   /             468.25

 

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC                                 

Mar21   71.63     /             71.77

Apr21    71.46     /             71.66

May21   71.24     /             71.44

Jun21     71.02     /             71.22

Jul21      70.83     /             71.03

Aug21    70.65     /             70.85

Q2-21    71.25     /             71.45

Q3-21    70.65     /             70.85

Q4-21    69.85     /             70.05

Q1-22    69.30     /             69.50

CAL22    68.68     /             69.08

 

Ice Gasoil Swap                                            

Mar21   536.18   /             539.18

Apr21    536.05   /             539.05

May21   534.80   /             537.80

Jun21     533.29   /             536.29

Jul21      531.98   /             534.98

Aug21    531.11   /             534.11

Q2-21    534.70   /             537.70

Q3-21    531.24   /             534.24

Q4-21    525.60   /             528.60

Q1-22    513.49   /             516.49

CAL22    511.78   /             514.78

 

 

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