FIS Fuel Oil Morning Report 23/09/21

At 0210 GMT, Brent futures contract was up 15 cents/b (0.2%) from the previous close at $76.34/b, while the NYMEX November light sweet crude contract was 9 cents/b (0.12%) higher at $72.32/b.

 

“Crude prices rallied after US stockpiles tumbled to the lowest levels since October 2018,” said OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya, adding that oil market fundamentals were turning bullish as concerns of an economic slowdown in China eased and amid forecasts that supply shortages for natural gas could lead to increased demand for oil. ANZ Research analysts similarly noted that crude oil prices have risen as supply availability was back in focus, with US oil inventories falling for the seventh consecutive week. US commercial crude stocks fell 3.48 million barrels to 413.96 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 17, to more than 8% below the five-year average, Energy Information Administration data showed. Stocks were last lower Oct. 5, 2018.

Oil supply disruptions due to Hurricane Ida continue as operators in the US Gulf of Mexico struggle to return to full production. Almost 294,214b/d or 16.18% of production remained shut-in as of Sept. 22. according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. US crude output averaged 10.6 million b/d in the week ended Sept. 17, up 500,000 b/d week on week but still down 900,000 b/d from pre-Ida levels. Global oil supply was also expected to remain tight, with UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei saying Sept. 21 that OPEC and its allies should stick to its agreement to increase production by 400,000 b/d each month, even as some observers call for a greater production increase as pandemic restrictions ease, S&P Global Platts reported.

China’s oil product exports have also fallen due to tight quota availability and government controls, with gasoline exports falling 23% month on month in August to a three-month low, Platts reported .Sentiment was further supported by expectations of a spill over impact from higher gas prices as the natural gas market continues to trade at elevated levels amid tightness going into winter. “European gas storage is a little over 72% full, compared to the 5-year average of around 88% for this time of year,” ING research analysts said Sept. 23. (S&P Global)

 

OIL MARKET ROUND-UP:

* OPEC Nations Warn of Oil Market Turbulence From Gas Crisis
* Goldman Sees $90 Oil If Coming Winter Is Colder Than Normal
* A Force Majeure in Canada’s Oil Sands Adds to Crude Supply Woes
* U.S. Oil Stockpiles Contracting Amid Global Energy Crisis:
* U.S. Energy Exports Show First Surplus Since at Least the 1970s
* Iraq Warns of Oil Demand Rising as Global Gas Crisis Worsens

Singapore 380 INDIC

Oct21    446.50   /             448.50

Nov21   435.75   /              437.75

Dec21    428.25   /             430.25

Jan22     422.75   /             424.75

Feb22    419.00   /             421.00

Mar22   415.25   /             417.25

Q4-21    437.00   /             439.00

Q1-22    419.00   /             421.00

Q2-22    408.25   /             410.25

Q3-22    397.75   /             400.75

CAL22    400.25   /             403.25

 

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC

Oct21    419.00   /             421.00

Nov21   413.00   /             415.00

Dec21    408.00   /             410.00

Jan22     403.75   /             405.75

Feb22    400.25   /             402.25

Mar22   396.75   /             398.75

Q4-21    413.50   /             415.50

Q1-22    400.25   /             402.25

Q2-22    389.75   /             391.75

Q3-22    378.50   /             381.50

CAL22    382.00   /             385.00

 

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC

Oct21    547.25   /              552.25

Nov21   543.75   /              548.75

Dec21    540.00   /              545.00

Jan22     536.50   /              541.50

Feb22    533.00   /              538.00

Mar22   529.50   /              534.50

Q4-21    543.75   /              548.75

Q1-22    533.00   /              538.00

Q2-22    523.00   /              529.00

Q3-22    514.50   /              520.50

CAL22    519.25   /              525.25

 

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC

Oct21    524.00   /              529.00

Nov21   521.00   /              526.00

Dec21    518.00   /              523.00

Jan22     514.75   /              519.75

Feb22    511.50   /              516.50

Mar22   508.25   /              513.25

Q4-21    521.00   /              526.00

Q1-22    511.50   /              516.50

Q2-22    501.75   /              507.75

Q3-22    493.25   /              499.25

CAL22    497.75   /              503.75

 

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC

Oct21    84.30     /              84.44

Nov21   83.69     /              83.89

Dec21    83.06     /              83.26

Jan22     82.53     /              82.73

Feb22    82.09     /              82.29

Mar22   81.69     /              81.89

Q4-21    83.70     /              83.90

Q1-22    82.11     /              82.31

Q2-22    81.10     /              81.30

Q3-22    80.21     /              80.41

CAL22    80.56     /              80.96

 

Ice Gasoil Swap

Oct21    639.84   /              641.84

Nov21   635.46   /              637.46

Dec21    630.92   /              632.92

Jan22     627.16   /              629.16

Feb22    623.59   /              625.59

Mar22   619.88   /              621.88

Q4-21    635.40   /              637.40

Q1-22    623.54   /              625.54

Q2-22    614.54   /              616.54

Q3-22    607.59   /              609.59

CAL22    610.91   /              613.91

 

 

 

 

 

For more information please contact

FIS Oil Desk

info@freightinvestor.com
UK number: +44 (0) 207 090 1134
Shanghai number: +86 (0)21 63012568
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Email: LukeL@freightinvestor.com

Mobile: (+44) 7966 968761

 

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Email: RickyF@freightinvestor.com

Mobile: (+44) 7868 708719

 

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Email: SamT@freightinvestor.com

Mobile: (+44) 7729 118643

 

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Email: jessied@freightinvestor.com

Mobile: (+86)1352 4516743

 

Jarryd Smith
Email: jarryds@freightinvestor.com
Mobile: (+65) 87984987

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