Good morning. Brent futures rose 9 cents or nearly 0.2% to $45.25 by 4:36 am GMT, while WTI futures eased 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $42.16 a barrel. Global COVID-19 cases stand at 18,727, 700, while total deaths had exceeded the 700,000 mark, according to data from John Hopkins University. While the number of daily infections globally has eased, it remains high with a confirmed 257,911 cases on August 4.
The continued spread of COVID-19 worldwide remains the key drag on market sentiment and recovery in oil demand, however analysts interviewed by Platts are positive about expectations of recovery to get back on track in September, assuming virus developments don’t prompt the return of widespread lockdowns. Nevertheless, the market is still hopeful about the commercialisation of a vaccine in the short term.
Energy Information Administration data published on Wednesday showed that US commercial crude inventories fell 7.37 million barrels to 518.6 million barrels for the week ended July 31 and narrowed the surplus to the five-year average to about 16%. This was significantly higher than the market’s consensus of a 3.35 million barrels decline, but slightly below the American Petroleum Institute’s expectations of an 8.6 million-barrel draw released on August 4. However, inventories at the storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, rose for a fifth week to the highest level since May. Gasoline stocks rose for a second consecutive week, climbing 420,000 barrels to 247.81 million barrels, while nationwide distillate inventories were also up 1.59 million barrels at 179.98 million barrels.
Total motor gasoline supplied, a proxy for demand, was also down 190,000 b/d on the week at 8.62 million b/d, leaving it nearly 11% behind year-ago levels. This is a sign that the recovery in demand remains fragile, and comes as the US driving season, the world’s biggest seasonal demand period comes to an end. On another note, the continued downtrend in the US dollar had helped to support investor appetite in the broader commodities sector and crude prices, given the strong inverse correlation between the US dollar and crude prices.
Meanwhile, oil stored on ships that haven’t moved for 14-150 days dropped further last month to about 135 million barrels as of late July, according to a data from IHS Markit. On the supply side, oil exports from OPEC’s Middle East producers rose in July after Saudi Arabia and key Persian Gulf allies reversed the voluntary production cuts they had made the previous month. The figures exclude Iran. Furthermore, according to Bloomberg, Saudi Aramco is planning to release pricing for September’s crude shipments on Thursday, after delaying the decision earlier this week.
MARKETS NEWS:
* Refiners Aren’t the Only Ones Hoping Drivers Return to the Roads
* Exxon Says 20% of Oil, Gas Reserves Threatened by Low Prices
* Saudi Aramco Plans to Release September Crude Pricing Thursday
* Refining Margin for Fuel Sinking Below $10/B on Excess Capacity
* OPEC Middle East Oil Flows Edge Higher on Easing of Output Cuts
* Two Supertankers Hint at Important Shift in Global Diesel Market
* Top Pipe Maker Says Drilling to Get Worse Before It Gets Better
* Marathon Oil Cuts CapEx Forecast, Boosts Oil Production View
* NEO Energy Said to Weigh Bid for Exxon’s North Sea Assets
OTHER NEWS:
* BNP Halts New Commodity Trade Finance Deals Amid Unit Review
* Continental, WPX Among Energy Gainers as Dakota Avoids Shutdown
* Oil-Sands Emissions Intensity Inching Down Amid ESG Headwinds
* Shale Driller Devon to Pay Biggest Dividend in Its History
PHYSICAL CRUDE NEWS:
* ASIA: Libya’s Exports Set to Dwindle; Saudi OSPs Delayed
* LATAM: Colombia’s Refinery Runs Rise; U.S. Imports
* US/CANADA: Dakota Access Pipe Staves Off Shutdown Order
* NSEA: BP Offers Brent Lower; DUC Aug. Cargo Deferred
* MED: Trafigura Offers Urals at 3-Mo. Low; BTC Azeri Flows
* WAF: Oil Ships to Asia; Angola Cabinda Offered Lower
OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Delek Expects More Refineries Will Close
* EUROPE: Flows to Americas Rise; Ineos Lavera Outage
* ASIA: Dirty Fuel’s Unusual Demand Boost to Wane
ECONOMIC EVENTS:
* EARNINGS: Glencore, EOG Resources, Canadian Natural Resources, HollyFrontier, Murphy Oil, Idemitsu Kosan, Inpex, HPCL
ANALYST COLUMNS:
* Crude Oil in Floating Storage Dropped to 135M Bbls in July: IHS
* China’s Crude Imports Likely Averaged 11.6M B/d in July: OilX
OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Dollar Remains Under Pressure; Stocks Trade Mixed: Markets Wrap
Singapore 380 INDIC
Sep20 256.75 / 258.75
Oct20 256.75 / 258.75
Nov20 257.50 / 259.50
Dec20 258.75 / 260.75
Jan21 260.50 / 262.50
Feb21 262.50 / 264.50
Q4-20 257.75 / 259.75
Q1-21 262.50 / 264.50
Q2-21 267.25 / 269.25
Q3-21 271.00 / 274.00
CAL21 268.75 / 274.75
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Sep20 246.00 / 248.00
Oct20 243.50 / 245.50
Nov20 243.25 / 245.25
Dec20 243.50 / 245.50
Jan21 245.50 / 247.50
Feb21 247.25 / 249.25
Q4-20 243.50 / 245.50
Q1-21 247.25 / 249.25
Q2-21 251.75 / 253.75
Q3-21 254.75 / 257.75
CAL21 251.00 / 257.00
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep20 328.00 / 333.00
Oct20 330.50 / 335.50
Nov20 333.00 / 338.00
Dec20 335.75 / 340.75
Jan21 339.25 / 344.25
Feb21 342.00 / 347.00
Q4-20 333.00 / 338.00
Q1-21 342.00 / 347.00
Q2-21 349.00 / 355.00
Q3-21 355.00 / 361.00
CAL21 351.25 / 357.25
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep20 308.75 / 313.75
Oct20 312.50 / 317.50
Nov20 315.50 / 320.50
Dec20 318.00 / 323.00
Jan21 322.00 / 327.00
Feb21 325.50 / 330.50
Q4-20 315.25 / 320.25
Q1-21 325.25 / 330.25
Q2-21 332.50 / 338.50
Q3-21 338.25 / 344.25
CAL21 334.50 / 340.50
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Sep20 50.49 / 50.63
Oct20 50.81 / 51.01
Nov20 51.17 / 51.37
Dec20 51.54 / 51.74
Jan21 51.96 / 52.16
Feb21 52.38 / 52.58
Q4-20 51.15 / 51.45
Q1-21 52.33 / 52.63
Q2-21 53.50 / 53.80
Q3-21 54.61 / 54.91
CAL21 53.85 / 54.25
ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC
Sep20 382.71 / 384.71
Oct20 386.82 / 388.82
Nov20 390.00 / 392.00
Dec20 393.20 / 395.20
Jan21 396.99 / 398.99
Feb21 400.61 / 402.61
Q4-20 390.00 / 392.00
Q1-21 399.69 / 401.69
Q2-21 408.55 / 410.55
Q3-21 418.57 / 420.57
CAL21 412.55 / 414.55
Rott Hi5 Sing Hi5
Sep20 64 73
Oct20 71 75
Nov20 74 77
Dec20 76 79
Jan21 78 80
Feb21 80 81
Q4-20 74 77
Q1-21 80 81
Q2-21 83 84
Q3-21 85 86
CAL21 83 82