At 10:49 am Singapore time (0249 GMT), the ICE January Brent futures contract was up 38 cents/b (0.45%) from the previous close at $85.16/b while the NYMEX December light sweet crude contract rose 14 cents/b (0.17%) at $84.29/b.
The EIA in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook said growth in output from OPEC+ members, US shale and other non-OPEC countries will outpace slowing growth in global oil consumption in 2022. It forecast Brent prices easing from current levels to an average of $72/b for the year. For the remainder of 2021, it expects Brent prices to remain near current levels, averaging $82/b in the fourth quarter. The EIA trimmed the outlook for 2022 global oil demand growth by 130,000 b/d from last month to 3.35 million b/d, but raised its outlook for US oil production to 11.13 million b/d in 2021, up 110,000 b/d from last month’s outlook, and to 11.9 million b/d in 2022, up 170,000 b/d. (S&P Global Platts)
The EIA estimates that the oil market will be oversupplied by a little more than 500Mbbls/d in 2022, which compares to being undersupplied by around 1.6MMbbls/d in 2021. As a result, the EIA expects Brent to average US$72/bbl next year, compared to a little over US$82/bbl in the final quarter of 2021. As for US crude oil supply, the EIA estimates that oil output will average 11.9MMbbls/d in 2022, up around 780Mbbls/d from 2021. Offering further support to the market this morning were the latest API numbers, which showed that US crude oil inventories declined by 2.5MMbbls over the last week. (ING)
Oil prices have added 4.2%-5.3% in value since a brief correction mid last week and were now on track to surpass seven-year peaks touched in late-October. Investors have been quick to buy any dip as the narrative of a tight supply market continued to dominate the sentiment. Despite recent gains, both benchmarks were yet to reach overbought territory, according to the Relative Strength Index on the daily charts. (S&P Global Platts)
*Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC*
Dec21 438.25 / 440.25
Jan22 438.25 / 440.25
Feb22 437.75 / 439.75
Mar22 436.00 / 438.00
Apr22 434.00 / 436.00
May22 431.75 / 433.75
Q1-22 437.25 / 439.25
Q2-22 431.75 / 433.75
Q3-22 423.00 / 425.00
Q4-22 412.00 / 415.00
CAL22 424.25 / 430.25
CAL23 392.75 / 400.75
*Singapore 380 INDIC*
Dec21 458.00 / 460.00
Jan22 457.25 / 459.25
Feb22 455.75 / 457.75
Mar22 454.25 / 456.25
Apr22 452.50 / 454.50
May22 450.50 / 452.50
Q1-22 455.75 / 457.75
Q2-22 450.50 / 452.50
Q3-22 443.25 / 445.25
Q4-22 434.50 / 437.50
CAL22 444.25 / 450.25
CAL23 415.50 / 423.50
*Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Dec21 575.75 / 580.75
Jan22 571.50 / 576.50
Feb22 567.25 / 572.25
Mar22 563.00 / 568.00
Apr22 559.00 / 564.00
May22 555.00 / 560.00
Q1-22 567.25 / 572.25
Q2-22 555.00 / 560.00
Q3-22 542.50 / 548.50
Q4-22 530.25 / 538.25
CAL22 547.75 / 555.75
CAL23 501.75 / 517.75
*Sing VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*
Dec21 608.00 / 613.00
Jan22 599.75 / 604.75
Feb22 593.00 / 598.00
Mar22 587.50 / 592.50
Apr22 583.00 / 588.00
May22 578.75 / 583.75
Q1-22 593.25 / 598.25
Q2-22 578.75 / 583.75
Q3-22 566.25 / 572.25
Q4-22 553.25 / 561.25
CAL22 571.75 / 579.75
CAL23 523.50 / 539.50
*Sing 10ppm GO INDIC*
Dec21 96.16 / 96.30
Jan22 94.95 / 95.15
Feb22 93.91 / 94.11
Mar22 93.11 / 93.31
Apr22 92.36 / 92.56
May22 91.72 / 91.92
Q1-22 93.95 / 94.25
Q2-22 91.67 / 91.97
Q3-22 90.06 / 90.36
Q4-22 88.73 / 89.03
CAL22 91.05 / 91.45
CAL23 86.25 / 86.65
*ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC*
Dec21 726.65 / 730.65
Jan22 718.60 / 722.60
Feb22 711.00 / 715.00
Mar22 703.33 / 707.33
Apr22 696.48 / 700.48
May22 690.83 / 694.83
Q1-22 710.95 / 714.95
Q2-22 692.29 / 696.29
Q3-22 681.46 / 685.46
Q4-22 669.55 / 673.55
CAL22 688.57 / 692.57
CAL23 649.21 / 653.21
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