Morning Oil Report 10/11/21

At 10:49 am Singapore time (0249 GMT), the ICE January Brent futures contract was up 38 cents/b (0.45%) from the previous close at $85.16/b while the NYMEX December light sweet crude contract rose 14 cents/b (0.17%) at $84.29/b.

 

The EIA in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook said growth in output from OPEC+ members, US shale and other non-OPEC countries will outpace slowing growth in global oil consumption in 2022. It forecast Brent prices easing from current levels to an average of $72/b for the year. For the remainder of 2021, it expects Brent prices to remain near current levels, averaging $82/b in the fourth quarter. The EIA trimmed the outlook for 2022 global oil demand growth by 130,000 b/d from last month to 3.35 million b/d, but raised its outlook for US oil production to 11.13 million b/d in 2021, up 110,000 b/d from last month’s outlook, and to 11.9 million b/d in 2022, up 170,000 b/d. (S&P Global Platts)

 

The EIA estimates that the oil market will be oversupplied by a little more than 500Mbbls/d in 2022, which compares to being undersupplied by around 1.6MMbbls/d in 2021. As a result, the EIA expects Brent to average US$72/bbl next year, compared to a little over US$82/bbl in the final quarter of 2021. As for US crude oil supply, the EIA estimates that oil output will average 11.9MMbbls/d in 2022, up around 780Mbbls/d from 2021. Offering further support to the market this morning were the latest API numbers, which showed that US crude oil inventories declined by 2.5MMbbls over the last week. (ING)

 

Oil prices have added 4.2%-5.3% in value since a brief correction mid last week and were now on track to surpass seven-year peaks touched in late-October. Investors have been quick to buy any dip as the narrative of a tight supply market continued to dominate the sentiment. Despite recent gains, both benchmarks were yet to reach overbought territory, according to the Relative Strength Index on the daily charts. (S&P Global Platts)

 

 

*Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC*                                            

Dec21    438.25   /             440.25

Jan22     438.25   /             440.25

Feb22    437.75   /             439.75

Mar22   436.00   /             438.00

Apr22    434.00   /             436.00

May22  431.75   /             433.75

Q1-22    437.25   /             439.25

Q2-22    431.75   /             433.75

Q3-22    423.00   /             425.00

Q4-22    412.00   /             415.00

CAL22    424.25   /             430.25

CAL23    392.75   /              400.75

 

*Singapore 380 INDIC*

Dec21    458.00   /             460.00

Jan22     457.25   /              459.25

Feb22    455.75   /             457.75

Mar22   454.25   /             456.25

Apr22    452.50   /             454.50

May22  450.50   /             452.50

Q1-22    455.75   /             457.75

Q2-22    450.50   /             452.50

Q3-22    443.25   /             445.25

Q4-22    434.50   /             437.50

CAL22    444.25   /             450.25

CAL23    415.50   /             423.50

 

*Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*                                           

Dec21    575.75   /              580.75

Jan22     571.50   /              576.50

Feb22    567.25   /              572.25

Mar22   563.00   /              568.00

Apr22    559.00   /              564.00

May22  555.00   /              560.00

Q1-22    567.25   /              572.25

Q2-22    555.00   /              560.00

Q3-22    542.50   /              548.50

Q4-22    530.25   /              538.25

CAL22    547.75   /              555.75

CAL23    501.75   /              517.75

 

*Sing VLSFO 0.5% INDIC*                                            

Dec21    608.00   /              613.00

Jan22     599.75   /              604.75

Feb22    593.00   /              598.00

Mar22   587.50   /              592.50

Apr22    583.00   /              588.00

May22  578.75   /              583.75

Q1-22    593.25   /              598.25

Q2-22    578.75   /              583.75

Q3-22    566.25   /              572.25

Q4-22    553.25   /              561.25

CAL22    571.75   /              579.75

CAL23    523.50   /              539.50

 

*Sing 10ppm GO INDIC*                                              

Dec21    96.16     /              96.30

Jan22     94.95     /              95.15

Feb22    93.91     /              94.11

Mar22   93.11     /              93.31

Apr22    92.36     /              92.56

May22  91.72     /              91.92

Q1-22    93.95     /              94.25

Q2-22    91.67     /              91.97

Q3-22    90.06     /              90.36

Q4-22    88.73     /              89.03

CAL22    91.05     /              91.45

CAL23    86.25     /              86.65

 

*ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC*                                          

Dec21    726.65   /              730.65

Jan22     718.60   /              722.60

Feb22    711.00   /              715.00

Mar22   703.33   /              707.33

Apr22    696.48   /              700.48

May22  690.83   /              694.83

Q1-22    710.95   /              714.95

Q2-22    692.29   /              696.29

Q3-22    681.46   /              685.46

Q4-22    669.55   /              673.55

CAL22    688.57   /              692.57

CAL23    649.21   /              653.21

 

 

 

 

 

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FIS Oil Desk

 

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