Good morning all. Brent futures dropped 17 cents or 0.42% overnight to $40.62 after regaining 2.5% throughout Wednesday. WTI had similar losses of 24 cents or 0.63% at 0417GMT.
The oil market is under pressure from rising supply and suppressed demand with the EIA inventory data due on Thursday, a day later than usual because of Labor Day on Monday. China’s imports of crude are set to level off as independent refiners are reaching their maximum annual crude quotas. This does not bode well for the US, as figures showed that stock levels rose 3 million barrels up the week of September 4th, at the same time that EIA has cut its demand forecast by 210,000 bpd to 8.32 million bpd. Elsewhere on the topic of cuts, Iraq’s federal government have asked the semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government to cuts its oil production by 120,000 bpd, which is currently exporting oil without consulting the central governing body.
Traders are bearish, with tankers and floating storage being booked up as supply outstrips consumption according to shipping data and the OPEC+ meeting due for 17th September looking likely to address the rate of production and trip members output further.
In other oil product news, Venezuela are seeing huge queues at the pumps as they weight for long overdue shipments from Iran that left in August. Venezuelan refiners have halted operations due to years of underinvestment and as a result, they have become heavily reliant on the Iranian shipments that are constantly at risk of seizure from the US authorities due to the increased tensions between Washington and Tehran. In India, jet fuel consumption received a much-needed increase in consumption, with a 10% rise month on month in August.
Coronavirus is still the word on everybody’s lips in almost every market, with cases rising globally with vaccine trials stalling. This comes as the UK prime minister stated in his new conference on Wednesday that the UK may not see normality until the spring of 2021.
MARKETS NEWS:
* Oil Market Buckles Under Pressure of Pandemic’s Second Wave
* Saudi Arabia’s Stretched Finances Entangle Cash Cow Aramco
* EIA Raises 2020 Global Oil Supply Outlook, Sees Lower Demand
* EIA Lowers 2021 U.S. Crude Output Forecast to 11.08m b/d
* U.S. Oil Output Peaked in 2020, Likely to Decline for Years: EOG
* Morning AMLO: Mexico Signals It’s Hedging Oil Quietly for 2021
* Venezuela Opposition-Led Assembly Starts Discussing New Oil Law
* Benchmark VLCC Rates Rise Again; Baltic-Europe Clean Tankers Dip
OTHER NEWS:
* Macquarie Group Is Said to Eliminate 70 From U.S. Workforce
* Elliott Is Said to Seek to Break Up Chevron’s Takeover of Noble
PHYSICAL CRUDE NEWS:
* ASIA: Aramco Getting Squeezed; Pertamina’s Tenders
* LATAM: Mexico FinMin Says Will Carry out 2021 Oil Hedge
* US/CANADA: Enterprise Nixes Midland-to-Echo 4 Oil Pipeline
* NSEA: Ekofisk Hits 5-Month Low as Mercuria Buys
* MED: Total Bids CPC; Tenergy Offers Sib Light; Tanker Held
* WAF: Nigeria Finds Oil Hard to Shift; Angolan Crude Unsold
OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Total Port Arthur’s Slowed Restart
* EUROPE: Gunvor Rotterdam Work; Glencore Buys ULSD
* ASIA: Heavy Naphtha Glut Swells on Weak Demand
ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London. )
* EIA crude inventory report
* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data
* Insights Global weekly report on European refined product inventories in ARA region
ANALYST COLUMNS:
* Oil’s Selloff Moment Could Be Ending Soon: Citi
OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Global Stock Rebound Fizzles; U.S. Futures Drop: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg News/Data)
Singapore 380 INDIC
Oct20 233.25 / 235.25
Nov20 235.25 / 237.25
Dec20 237.25 / 239.25
Jan21 239.00 / 241.00
Feb21 241.25 / 243.25
Mar21 243.50 / 245.50
Q4-20 235.25 / 237.25
Q1-21 241.25 / 243.25
Q2-21 247.50 / 249.50
Q3-21 252.00 / 255.00
CAL21 250.00 / 253.00
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Oct20 222.00 / 224.00
Nov20 221.00 / 223.00
Dec20 221.25 / 223.25
Jan21 223.25 / 225.25
Feb21 225.25 / 227.25
Mar21 227.25 / 229.25
Q4-20 221.50 / 223.50
Q1-21 225.25 / 227.25
Q2-21 230.75 / 232.75
Q3-21 234.50 / 237.50
CAL21 233.00 / 236.00
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Oct20 295.50 / 300.50
Nov20 298.00 / 303.00
Dec20 300.50 / 305.50
Jan21 303.25 / 308.25
Feb21 305.75 / 310.75
Mar21 308.25 / 313.25
Q4-20 298.00 / 303.00
Q1-21 305.75 / 310.75
Q2-21 312.75 / 318.75
Q3-21 319.75 / 325.75
CAL21 315.75 / 321.75
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Oct20 275.25 / 280.25
Nov20 277.75 / 282.75
Dec20 280.50 / 285.50
Jan21 284.25 / 289.25
Feb21 287.50 / 292.50
Mar21 290.50 / 295.50
Q4-20 277.75 / 282.75
Q1-21 287.25 / 292.25
Q2-21 295.75 / 301.75
Q3-21 302.75 / 308.75
CAL21 298.25 / 304.25
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Oct20 44.07 / 44.21
Nov20 44.67 / 44.87
Dec20 45.23 / 45.43
Jan21 45.77 / 45.97
Feb21 46.31 / 46.51
Mar21 46.88 / 47.08
Q4-20 44.65 / 44.85
Q1-21 46.32 / 46.52
Q2-21 47.96 / 48.16
Q3-21 49.46 / 49.66
CAL21 48.45 / 48.85
ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC
Oct20 330.63 / 332.63
Nov20 335.35 / 337.35
Dec20 339.64 / 341.64
Jan21 344.68 / 346.68
Feb21 349.79 / 351.79
Mar21 353.80 / 355.80
Q4-20 335.20 / 337.20
Q1-21 349.42 / 351.42
Q2-21 361.03 / 363.03
Q3-21 374.97 / 376.97
CAL21 367.05 / 369.05
Rott Hi5 Sing Hi5
Oct20 55 64
Nov20 58 64
Dec20 61 65
Jan21 62 66
Feb21 64 66
Mar21 65 66
Q4-20 58 64
Q1-21 63 66
Q2-21 67 67
Q3-21 70 69
CAL21 67 67