Morning Oil Report 11/9/20

Good morning. Brent fell 0.5% or 18 cents to settle at $39.88 a barrel whereas WTI fell 0.4% or 14 cents to $37.16 a barrel. Both benchmarks are down 6.5% for the week with hopes of a quick price recovery, dwindling.

 

The big news coming from Thursday was that the EIA reports showed that inventories rose by 2 million barrels last week, which although is bearish, it is not as big a build that was previously expected by the API. In China, imports of crude are expected to level off as independent refineries reach their maximum quotas, with this leading traders to plan ahead and look to book storage of crude and diesel.

 

The rising uncertainty over crude prices comes a few days before the next OPEC+ cuts meeting which is due to take place on September 17th. As a result of this, Iraq are debating whether to ask for exemptions to the cuts that OPEC+ are due to impose. The falling prices has squeezed finances in an already war-ravaged country that tries to rebuild, which 97% of finances derives from oil revenues, with a reformation taking at least 5 years and that state debt amounted to 80-90% of national product.

 

Naturally as the oil prices fall, oil states are looking to diversify revenue streams, with Oman looking to the bond market to fill the revenue gap, Argus reports. Oman have already issued just under $1.5 billion of development bonds, with a plan to roll this out further in the coming months.

 

In Asia, a products tanker has exploded after waiting to discharge at the port of Dung Quat after having problems with the portside cargo tanks, with 1 of the 12 crew still missing, this comes as previously in the week the New Diamond, the IOC chartered vessel reignited and began to leak cargo into the high seas.

MARKETS NEWS:
* China Crude Inventories Retreat From Record High: Ursa Space
* U.S. Weekly Saudi Oil Imports Fall to Lowest Since at Least 2010
* Crude Stockpiles Rise, Gasoline Inventories Fall: EIA Takeaways
* Lukoil Planning for $50/Bbl Oil Price in 2021, Tass Reports
* Qatar Sets Land Crude Price at 90c Discount for October Sales
* ChemChina, BP, Trafigura Book Oil Tankers as Freight Rates Slide
* Oil Tanker Bound For Libya’s Es Sider Said to Have Been Canceled
* Canadian Light Crudes Rally as Enbridge Gets OK to Start Line 5
* Northern Oil Sees 3Q Production 25,000–30,000 BOE/Day; Shrs Rise
* Saudi Aramco Raises Domestic Fuel Prices for Sept.: State TV
* Benchmark VLCC Rates Surge; Europe-U.S. Clean Tankers Drop

OTHER NEWS:
* China Plans Strategic Boost to Vast State Commodity Reserves
* Why We Still Can’t Stop Oil Spills From Damaging the Environment
* German Navy Boards Ship Carrying Jet Fuel to Eastern Libya
* Greenpeace Blocks Oil Tanker From Reaching Swedish Refinery
* Venezuela Opposition-Led Assembly Plans New Oil Law for Dec.

PHYSICAL CRUDE NEWS:
* ASIA: Iranian OSPs Fall; China to Boost Strategic Reserves
* LATAM: How Pemex Became World’s Deadliest Covid Company
* US/CANADA: Magellan to Link 3rd-Party Pipes to MEH Site
* NSEA: Equinor Offers Oseberg; Total Keeps Ekofisk Cargo
* MED: Totsa Buys Urals, CPC at Higher Prices; Tenergy Offer
* WAF: IOC Buys Nov./Dec. Oil From Total; Tankers to Asia

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Shut FCC, Reduced Rates at PBF Refineries
* EUROPE: Gasoil Stocks Swell; Donges Restarts Unit
* ASIA: Singapore Diesel, Jet Fuel Stockpiles Shrink

ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London.)
* 6pm: Baker Hughes weekly rig count report
* 6:30pm: ICE Commitments of Traders report
* 8.30pm: CFTC Commitments of Traders report

ANALYST COLUMNS:
* China’s Crude Inventories at 81% of Capacity at End of July: JLC
* TD Says Buy Heating Oil Spread on Bet of Easing Contango
* U.S. Gasoline Demand Stalls as Driving Season Ends: OPIS
* Gasoil Stockpiles Rise in Europe’s ARA Region: Insights Global

OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Stocks Set for Second Weekly Decline; Dollar Dips: Markets Wrap
(Bloomberg News/Data)

Singapore 380 INDIC

Oct20 229.50 / 231.50

Nov20 230.50 / 232.50

Dec20 232.50 / 234.50

Jan21 234.75 / 236.75

Feb21 237.00 / 239.00

Mar21 239.25 / 241.25

Q4-20 230.75 / 232.75

Q1-21 237.00 / 239.00

Q2-21 243.50 / 245.50

Q3-21 248.00 / 251.00

CAL21 245.50 / 248.50

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC

Oct20 218.00 / 220.00

Nov20 217.50 / 219.50

Dec20 217.50 / 219.50

Jan21 219.75 / 221.75

Feb21 221.75 / 223.75

Mar21 223.75 / 225.75

Q4-20 217.50 / 219.50

Q1-21 221.75 / 223.75

Q2-21 227.50 / 229.50

Q3-21 231.25 / 234.25

CAL21 228.50 / 231.50

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC

Oct20 289.25 / 294.25

Nov20 291.50 / 296.50

Dec20 294.00 / 299.00

Jan21 296.75 / 301.75

Feb21 299.25 / 304.25

Mar21 301.75 / 306.75

Q4-20 291.75 / 296.75

Q1-21 299.25 / 304.25

Q2-21 306.25 / 312.25

Q3-21 313.50 / 319.50

CAL21 309.50 / 315.50

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC

Oct20 268.50 / 273.50

Nov20 270.75 / 275.75

Dec20 273.25 / 278.25

Jan21 276.50 / 281.50

Feb21 279.75 / 284.75

Mar21 282.75 / 287.75

Q4-20 271.00 / 276.00

Q1-21 279.75 / 284.75

Q2-21 288.00 / 294.00

Q3-21 295.50 / 301.50

CAL21 291.00 / 297.00

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC

Oct20 43.00 / 43.14

Nov20 43.61 / 43.81

Dec20 44.14 / 44.34

Jan21 44.69 / 44.89

Feb21 45.24 / 45.44

Mar21 45.82 / 46.02

Q4-20 43.55 / 43.75

Q1-21 45.25 / 45.45

Q2-21 46.87 / 47.07

Q3-21 48.35 / 48.55

CAL21 47.35 / 47.75

ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC

Oct20 322.84 / 324.84

Nov20 327.60 / 329.60

Dec20 332.20 / 334.20

Jan21 337.59 / 339.59

Feb21 343.05 / 345.05

Mar21 347.18 / 349.18

Q4-20 327.55 / 329.55

Q1-21 342.61 / 344.61

Q2-21 354.35 / 356.35

Q3-21 368.86 / 370.86

CAL21 361.06 / 363.06

Rott Hi5 Sing Hi5

Oct20 52 61

Nov20 55 63

Dec20 57 63

Jan21 58 64

Feb21 60 64

Mar21 61 64

Q4-20 55 62

Q1-21 60 64

Q2-21 63 65

Q3-21 66 67

CAL21 64 65

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