Good morning all. Brent crude futures rose 7 cents, or 0.2% to $43.39 a barrel, with U.S. WTI climbing 8 cents, or 0.2%, to $41.12 a barrel at 0430 GMT. Yesterday the front FoGos strengthened throughout the day, as did the front crack with Gasoil and fuels pushing yet again.
Crude futures had pushed up in overnight trading, as the news coming from the API reported crude draws as a result of rigs being limited in their output in the Gulf Coast due to Hurricane Delta, and better compliance levels from OPEC+ members with output slowing in a bid to rebalance the oil market and prices. However at European open prices have started to fall towards the $43 level.
Hurricane Delta left nearly 91% of total crude production in the Gulf of Mexico offline, but reports from the BSEE today show that this figure is now only 31% of total crude production offline as oil producers scramble to restart output as staff are repopulated to the platforms. (Reuters)
As global cases of Covid-19 surge, the US treasury dashed any hopes of a stimulus package before 3rd November which caused global stock markets to slip and encouraged profit taking after the last few days of rallying in many markets, investors were not willing to risk much more. Worst-case scenario would be another full lockdown, which is looking increasingly likely across many European cities. (Reuters)
In fuel oil news, bunker demand in Japan was on the increase with August’s sales at 8% higher than on the year prior, but sales month-on-month were down. It is estimated that total demand for the year will be at 90% of last year’s levels. The Chinese city of Zhoushan also reported double digit growth even within the pandemic drop off in demand. (Ship and Bunker)
INDEX: (MTD Estimates)
* Sing 380: 243.49
* Rott 3.5%: 228.23
* Sing 0.5%: 320.78
* Rott 0.5%: 299.20
MARKETS NEWS:
* API Reports U.S. Crude Stockpiles Fell 5.42M Bbl Last Week
* Gasoline: -1.513M, Distillates: -3.930M, Cushing: +2.199M
* HSFO and VLSFO Front Spreads Both in Backwardation
* HSFO Crack Pushes Towards -5.00 level
* OPEC+ Sees Cuts Compliance at 102% in Sept: Delegates
* U.S. Oil Production Has Already Passed Its Peak, Occidental Says
* Russian Oil Companies Look to Slash Drilling Even More Next Year
* Energy Demand to Get a Vital Work-From-Home Boost This Winter
* Shell Sees 3 GOM Platforms Repairs Delayed By a Week on Delta
* Colombia Imports First Oil in 6 Months as Refineries Ramp Up
* Pemex CEO Sees Crude Output Reaching 1.91m Bbl/Day by Year End
* U.S. Gulf Oil Output Is 568,505 B/d Shut vs 805,965 B/d Tuesday
OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Ships Line Up For Europe-U.S. Gasoline Route
* EUROPE: Flow to Americas Drop; German Gelsenkirchen
* ASIA: Indian Festival Demand Boost; Korean Rates
ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London.)
* 4pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report (a day later than usual due to U.S. holiday)
* Final Day of Energy Intelligence Forum; speakers include OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo; CEOs of Vitol, Gunvor and Trafigura
* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data
* Insights Global weekly report on European refined product inventories in ARA region
ANALYST COLUMNS:
* Counter-Seasonal Draw From Oil Stocks Driven by Softer Demand
* Looking for Softer Gas-Storage Build on Storm, Better Demand
* World’s Oil Refiners Need to Shut About 3M B/D of Capacity: HSBC
Singapore 380 INDIC
Nov20 257.00 / 259.00
Dec20 255.50 / 257.50
Jan21 255.25 / 257.25
Feb21 255.25 / 257.25
Mar21 255.25 / 257.25
Apr21 255.50 / 257.50
Q1-21 255.25 / 257.25
Q2-21 256.00 / 258.00
Q3-21 257.50 / 259.50
Q4-21 258.50 / 261.50
CAL21 257.25 / 260.25
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Nov20 242.25 / 244.25
Dec20 240.75 / 242.75
Jan21 240.50 / 242.50
Feb21 240.75 / 242.75
Mar21 241.00 / 243.00
Apr21 241.50 / 243.50
Q1-21 240.75 / 242.75
Q2-21 242.00 / 244.00
Q3-21 243.00 / 245.00
Q4-21 243.00 / 246.00
CAL21 241.50 / 244.50
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Nov20 330.25 / 335.25
Dec20 328.50 / 333.50
Jan21 327.25 / 332.25
Feb21 326.50 / 331.50
Mar21 326.25 / 331.25
Apr21 326.50 / 331.50
Q1-21 326.75 / 331.75
Q2-21 327.50 / 332.50
Q3-21 331.00 / 337.00
Q4-21 334.50 / 340.50
CAL21 329.75 / 335.75
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Nov20 308.50 / 313.50
Dec20 307.25 / 312.25
Jan21 306.00 / 311.00
Feb21 306.50 / 311.50
Mar21 307.25 / 312.25
Apr21 308.25 / 313.25
Q1-21 306.50 / 311.50
Q2-21 309.25 / 314.25
Q3-21 312.25 / 318.25
Q4-21 315.75 / 321.75
CAL21 310.75 / 316.75
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Nov20 46.48 / 46.62
Dec20 46.86 / 47.06
Jan21 47.26 / 47.46
Feb21 47.67 / 47.87
Mar21 48.08 / 48.28
Apr21 48.50 / 48.70
Q1-21 47.65 / 47.85
Q2-21 48.93 / 49.13
Q3-21 50.14 / 50.34
Q4-21 50.98 / 51.18
CAL21 49.33 / 49.73
ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC
Nov20 347.72 / 349.72
Dec20 351.52 / 353.52
Jan21 355.51 / 357.51
Feb21 359.41 / 361.41
Mar21 362.73 / 364.73
Apr21 365.43 / 367.43
Q1-21 359.20 / 361.20
Q2-21 367.72 / 369.72
Q3-21 377.97 / 379.97
Q4-21 385.13 / 387.13
CAL21 372.51 / 374.51
(Rott Hi5) Sing Hi5
Nov20 (66.81) 72.06
Dec20 (67.06) 71.81
Jan21 (66.06) 70.81
Feb21 (66.31) 70.06
Mar21 (66.81) 69.81
Apr21 (67.31) 69.81
Q1-21 (66.40) 70.20
Q2-21 (67.81) 70.31
Q3-21 (70.31) 72.81
Q4-21 (73.31) 74.89
CAL21 (68.00) 70.00