Good morning all. Brent futures rose 30 cents, or 0.7%, to $45.10/b by 4:10 am GMT, while futures were up 34 cents, or 0.8%, to $42.35 a barrel.
A delay in the meeting between US and China, which was to occur over the weekend, to review its trade agreement did not dampen investors’ sentiment on expectations that China plans to continue shipping large volumes of US crude in the near-term. China’s independent refineries ramped up US crude imports in July, picking up 1.37 million mt in the month, according to Platts data. In addition, at least 965,000 mt of North American crude cargoes are waiting to be discharged for the private companies in August.
China’s total crude imports from US, meanwhile, had jumped to an eight-month high of 143,452 b/d, or 587,118 mt, in June with expectations that US imports could rise further in July and August, analysts and traders said last month. According to Reuters reports, Chinese state-owned oil firms have tentatively booked tankers to transport at least 20 million barrels of U.S. crude for August and September.
Amid record crude imports from the world’s top importer and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions globally, ANZ estimated that global demand has risen 8 million barrels per day (b/d) over the past four months to 88 million b/d – still 13 million b/d below this time last year.
The market is looking for further clues on future supply from a meeting this week to review OPEC+ cut agreement. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMCC), which is co-chaired by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is set to meet on August 19 to assess compliance with quotas and recommend any adjustments to the cuts if needed. The cuts have been scaled back to 7.7 million b/d from August through the end of the year and will relax even further to 5.8 million b/d from January 2021 through April 2022. However, the meeting is expected to yield little surprises, with production curbs expected to continue as outlined in April, as Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak said the global oil market is stabilizing gradually.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ member Oman has reported a 13.5% month-on-month decline in its crude oil exports in July to around 778,012 b/d. China accounted for 88.81% of the total exports in July, while India took the remaining 11.19%, the oil and gas ministry said Aug.16. Oman’s crude oil production averaged 671,275 b/d in July, down 1.85% on the month, and lower than the 682,000 b/d quota under the OPEC+ agreement for May-July. Its quota for will rise to 722,000 b/d from August through the end of the year.
On the other hand, in the United States the number of active oil and natural gas rigs fell by 4 to 172 last week, according to Friday data from Baker Hughes Co. That’s the lowest level since July 2005, before the shale boom kicked off.
On another note, the tankers seized by the US were transporting about 1.12 million barrels of petroleum, which has now been confiscated after help from “foreign partners,” the Justice Department said in a statement on Friday. The prospect of retaliatory action by Iran has the potential to disrupt oil markets if Iran interferes with international oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical choke point for oil shipments.
MARKETS NEWS:
* U.S. Seizes Four Iranian Tankers Carrying Fuel to Venezuela
* Oil Companies Wonder If It’s Worth Looking for Oil Anymore
* China Feasts on Obscure Oil to Dodge Taxman Amid Demand Gain
* Oman’s Oil Exports Declined 14% in July, Ministry Says
* Iran State Oil Firms Agree $1.8 Billion of Deals to Raise Output
* PMI Says Maya-to-USGC Oil Differential Unchanged at -$2.95/Bbl
* ASIA-AMERICAS FUEL: Jet Fuel Cargoes Boost August Shipments
* Petrobras Signs Letter of Intent With MISC for FPSO Services
OTHER NEWS:
* Singapore Oil Trader Hin Leong’s Founder Gets Forgery Charge
* Oklahoma Oil Driller Chaparral Files for Bankruptcy Protection
* Fraying U.S.-China Relations Tested by Trump Ahead of Election
* First Into the Virus Slump, China Is Proving the Fastest Out
* Vessel That Spilled Oil Off the Mauritian Coast Breaks Up
* Iran Warns UAE Ties Will Fundamentally Change Over Israel Pact
* Abu Dhabi to Merge Oil Services Firms Into National Champion
PHYSICAL CRUDE NEWS:
* ASIA: Singapore Oil Tycoon’s Forgery Charge; FPCC Buys
* LATAM: Formosa Buys 1st Lula; PMI’s K Factors
* US/CANADA: Oil Demand Woes to Last Longer Than Anticipated
* NSEA: Equinor Offers Oseberg; Litasco Seeks More Cargoes
* MED: Urals Trades at 4-Month Low; Tupras Buys Basrah Light
* WAF: IOC Skips WAF Grades; October Programs Expected Soon
OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* EUROPE: Mideast Flow Drops; Fawley Interruption
* ASIA: Hin Leong Founder Charged; Floating Gasoline
* U.S.: Calcasieu Refinery Idled; XOM Stops Coker
ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London. )
* 7pm: EIA monthly Drilling Productivity Report
* Nigerian loading program for October may emerge
* OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee; JODI
ANALYST COLUMNS
* Pace of Restarting U.S. Oil Wells Accelerates Since July: Rystad
* Four Seized Iran Tankers Could Spell Hormuz Trouble: Julian Lee
OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* China Stocks Gain, Dollar Edges Down; Gold Slips: Markets Wrap
Singapore 380 INDIC
Sep20 257.50 / 259.50
Oct20 257.00 / 259.00
Nov20 257.25 / 259.25
Dec20 258.75 / 260.75
Jan21 260.50 / 262.50
Feb21 262.25 / 264.25
Q4-20 257.75 / 259.75
Q1-21 262.25 / 264.25
Q2-21 267.25 / 269.25
Q3-21 270.75 / 273.75
CAL21 270.00 / 276.00
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Sep20 246.50 / 248.50
Oct20 244.50 / 246.50
Nov20 243.75 / 245.75
Dec20 244.00 / 246.00
Jan21 246.00 / 248.00
Feb21 247.75 / 249.75
Q4-20 244.25 / 246.25
Q1-21 247.75 / 249.75
Q2-21 251.75 / 253.75
Q3-21 254.50 / 257.50
CAL21 253.50 / 259.50
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep20 331.00 / 336.00
Oct20 332.50 / 337.50
Nov20 334.50 / 339.50
Dec20 336.75 / 341.75
Jan21 339.75 / 344.75
Feb21 342.50 / 347.50
Q4-20 334.50 / 339.50
Q1-21 342.50 / 347.50
Q2-21 349.75 / 355.75
Q3-21 356.75 / 362.75
CAL21 352.50 / 358.50
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep20 311.00 / 316.00
Oct20 314.50 / 319.50
Nov20 317.25 / 322.25
Dec20 319.50 / 324.50
Jan21 323.25 / 328.25
Feb21 326.50 / 331.50
Q4-20 317.00 / 322.00
Q1-21 326.25 / 331.25
Q2-21 334.25 / 340.25
Q3-21 340.75 / 346.75
CAL21 336.75 / 342.75
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Sep20 50.12 / 50.26
Oct20 50.56 / 50.76
Nov20 50.97 / 51.17
Dec20 51.41 / 51.61
Jan21 51.91 / 52.11
Feb21 52.41 / 52.61
Q4-20 51.00 / 51.20
Q1-21 52.39 / 52.59
Q2-21 53.70 / 53.90
Q3-21 54.95 / 55.15
CAL21 54.08 / 54.48
ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC
Sep20 380.31 / 382.31
Oct20 384.99 / 386.99
Nov20 388.80 / 390.80
Dec20 392.50 / 394.50
Jan21 396.40 / 398.40
Feb21 400.31 / 402.31
Q4-20 388.75 / 390.75
Q1-21 400.02 / 402.02
Q2-21 408.07 / 410.07
Q3-21 417.71 / 419.71
CAL21 412.24 / 414.24
Rott Hi5 Sing Hi5
Sep20 66 75
Oct20 71 77
Nov20 75 79
Dec20 77 79
Jan21 79 81
Feb21 80 82
Q4-20 74 78
Q1-21 80 82
Q2-21 84 84
Q3-21 88 87
CAL21 83 83
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