Morning Oil Report 18/11/20

Brent crude futures for January rose 19 cents, or 0.43%, to $43.94 a barrel by 0744 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December eased 3 cents, or 0.1%, to $41.40 a barrel by 0430 GMT. This rise has continued into the morning trading, with Brent pushing above $44.

 

API Predictions:

Crude +4.174

Cushing +0.176

Gasoline +0.256

Distillate -5.024

 

OPEC and its allies see oil inventories declining into 2021 should the supply cuts be extended into the new year, as opposed to relaxing them on January 1st, as current plans would allow. OPEC are meeting over the next few weeks to discuss the way in which producers continue output rates, with a document leaked stating its claim for the continued output cuts. (Reuters)

 

Crude stocks increased according to the latest API report by 4.2 million barrels, this was well above the analysts’ predictions of a build of only 1.7 million barrels.

 

Disappointing US retail sales also sparked concern as to the speed of the recovery from the pandemic devastation. With consumption lower than would have hoped, the case numbers continue to climb although the news of a vaccine had positive effects on the wider markets. (Reuters)

 

The UAE has achieved 126% compliance with output cuts set by OPEC in October, as it looked to compensate for earlier over production in August for August this year. The UAE produced 2.4 million barrels per day in October, with its quotas set at 2.59 million barrels per day. (S&P Global Platts)

 

Fujairah Fuel oil stocks have dropped to their lowest level in over two years according to data released from S&P Global Platts. The heavy distillate stocks fell to their lowest level, as a result of the strong bunkering industry that remained through the year as consumer spending on goods online kept the industry afloat. Stocks sank by 8.7% in the week to Monday, the lowest level since February 2019.

 

INDEX: (MTD Estimates)

* Sing 380: 264.92

* Rott 3.5%: 246.58

* Sing 0.5%: 327.61

* Rott 0.5%: 306.77

 

MARKETS NEWS:
* Oil From Russia to U.S. Gets Snapped Up in Asia Buying Binge
* WTI Export Cargoes Trading Higher on Asian Demand and Shale Cuts
* Last U.S. Oil Major in Venezuela Looks to Biden to Keep Foothold
* North Dakota Produced 1.222M B/D of Crude in Sept.: State
* API Reports U.S. Crude Stockpiles Rose 4.17M Bbl Last Week
* Rosneft Agrees to Sell 10% in Arctic Vostok Oil to Trafigura
* Caribbean-U.S. Dirty, Mideast-Japan Clean Tankers Extend Gains
* Libya to Ship at Least 808K B/D of Crude, Condensate Next Month

OTHER NEWS:
* World’s Biggest Oil Firm Saudi Aramco Sells $8 Billion in Bonds
* Keystone XL Gets Indigenous Investment With Hopes to Woo Biden
* Interior Approval of Conoco Drilling in Alaska Draws Lawsuit

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Rules on Carbon at Sea, Demand Down 5th Week
* EUROPE: Fawley Shuts CDU; Shell Buys ULSD Cargo
* ASIA: BPCL Purchases Term LPG; Lotte Buys Naphtha

ECONOMIC DATA: (Times are London.)
* 3:30pm: EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
* Genscape weekly ARA crude inventory report
* China October output data for base metals and oil products
* WoodMac virtual Energy Transition China Forum, day 2
* RBC Midstream and Energy Infrastructure Conference, day 1

ANALYST VIEWS:
* U.S. Shale Oil Output Seen Falling Up to 3% in 2021: Rystad
* Recovery for Gas Focused E&Ps Driven More by Oil Than Covid
* Vaccine News Not Enough to Allay Soft Near-Term Oil-Demand Risk
* India Oil Imports Match 2019 Level on Stronger Demand: Kpler

 

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC                                 

Dec20    249.75   /             251.75

Jan21     249.25   /             251.25

Feb21    248.75   /             250.75

Mar21   248.25   /             250.25

Apr21    247.50   /             249.50

May21  246.75   /             248.75

Q1-21    248.75   /             250.75

Q2-21    246.75   /             248.75

Q3-21    243.50   /             245.50

Q4-21    239.25   /             242.25

CAL21    244.50   /             247.50

 

Singapore 380 INDIC                                     

Dec20    270.25   /             272.25

Jan21     266.25   /              268.25

Feb21    264.25   /             266.25

Mar21   263.00   /             265.00

Apr21    262.00   /             264.00

May21  261.00   /             263.00

Q1-21    264.50   /             266.50

Q2-21    261.00   /             263.00

Q3-21    258.50   /             260.50

Q4-21    256.50   /             259.50

CAL21    261.00   /             264.00

 

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                 

Dec20    317.00   /              322.00

Jan21     316.50   /              321.50

Feb21    316.75   /              321.75

Mar21   317.25   /              322.25

Apr21    318.00   /              323.00

May21  318.75   /              323.75

Q1-21    317.00   /              322.00

Q2-21    318.75   /              323.75

Q3-21    320.75   /              326.75

Q4-21    323.25   /              329.25

CAL21    319.75   /              325.75

 

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                     

Dec20    341.00   /              346.00

Jan21     339.00   /              344.00

Feb21    338.00   /              343.00

Mar21   337.50   /              342.50

Apr21    337.50   /              342.50

May21  338.00   /              343.00

Q1-21    338.25   /              343.25

Q2-21    338.25   /              343.25

Q3-21    339.75   /              345.75

Q4-21    342.00   /              348.00

CAL21    339.25   /              345.25

 

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC                                   

Dec20    48.23     /              48.37

Jan21     48.32     /              48.52

Feb21    48.58     /              48.78

Mar21   48.94     /              49.14

Apr21    49.30     /              49.50

May21  49.64     /              49.84

Q1-21    48.60     /              48.80

Q2-21    49.64     /              49.84

Q3-21    50.85     /              51.05

Q4-21    51.68     /              51.88

CAL21    50.10     /              50.50

 

ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC                               

Dec20    356.35   /              358.35

Jan21     360.81   /              362.81

Feb21    364.74   /              366.74

Mar21   367.63   /              369.63

Apr21    370.91   /              372.91

May21  374.14   /              376.14

Q1-21    364.40   /              366.40

Q2-21    374.10   /              376.10

Q3-21    382.83   /              384.83

Q4-21    389.50   /              391.50

CAL21    377.71   /              379.71

 

Rott Hi5               Sing Hi5

Dec20    69           72

Jan21     69           74

Feb21    70           75

Mar21   71           76

Apr21    72           77

May21  74           79

Q1-21    70           75

Q2-21    74           79

Q3-21    79           83

Q4-21    86           87

CAL21    77           80

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