Good morning all. Brent futures were down 36 cents, or 0.8%, at $45.01 a barrel by 4:42 am GMT, WTI futures were down 38 cents, or 0.9%, at $42.55 a barrel.

 

The US Federal Reserve released the minutes of its July Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Aug. 19 that highlighted the COVID-19 pandemic “posted considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.” However, its reluctance to provide further clarity on rate guidance and more accommodative monetary policy stances pushed the US dollar higher in the US trading session, reversing the past weeks trend.

 

As there is a strong inverse correlation between the US dollar and crude prices, a stronger US dollar means less support for the global crude complex.

 

US commercial crude inventories fell 1.63 million barrels to 512.45 million barrels and gasoline inventories fell 3.32 million barrels to 243.76 million barrels in the week ended August 14, according to US Energy Information Administration data released on August 19. It was the fourth consecutive week of drawdown in US commercial crude stocks, but fell short of the American Petroleum Institute’s expectations of a 4.26 million-barrel draw.

 

On the supply side, OPEC+ concluded its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting on August 19 with the Saudi Arabian and Russian co-chairs urging counterparts to remain disciplined in adhering to their committed production cuts. The 23-country OPEC+ coalition exceeded its production quota by 357,000 b/d over May-July despite overcompliance by Saudi Arabia, according to Platts reports.

 

Members that violated their production quotas in May, June and July are required to make additional cuts beyond their already committed cuts in August and September to make up for their excess production. Notably, Iraq has pledged to make 400,000 b/d in extra cuts for August and September in a plan endorsed by Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies. Furthermore, according to a draft OPEC+ statement seen by Reuters, the cartel is wary about a second extended wave of the pandemic which might pose a major risk for the oil market recovery. The next JMMC meeting is scheduled for September 17, with a delegate level technical advisory committee due to meet the day before.

 

Meanwhile, crude shipments exported from Saudi Arabia are seen increasing month-on-month, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Furthermore, according to the same source, five VLCCs carrying a combined volume of about 9 million barrels of North Sea crude are floating off China and Singapore.

 

 

 

MARKETS NEWS:
* OPEC Compliance Seen at 70% in August as Exports Higher: Kpler
* Saudi Oil Min Sees Demand at 97% of Pre-Pandemic Level in 4Q
* Global Oil Inventories Have Started Shrinking: Russia’s Novak
* Saudi Prince, Iraqi Prime Minister Discuss Oil Markets: SPA
* Venezuela’s Maduro Extends Commission to Boost Oil Production
* Five VLCCs With North Sea Crude Float at Sea in Asia
* Haftar to Allow Limited Libya Oil Exports to Ease Power Gap
* U.S. Crude Stockpiles Fall; Big Draw on Gasoline: EIA Takeaways
* Pemex’s Top Oil Platform Struggles to Load Supertankers to Asia
* Benchmark VLCCs Steady; Mideast-Japan Clean Tankers Extend Gains

 

OTHER NEWS:
* Trump’s OPEC Push Fails to Avert U.S. Oil Industry’s Breakdown
* U.S., China to Plan Resumption of Delayed Trade Deal Talks
* Cnooc Sheds Costs as China Prepares for a Low Oil-Price Future
* Baker Hughes, Chevron, GE, Honeywell Sign Iraq Energy Deals
* Petronas Said to Show Interest in Buying Permian’s DoublePoint
* Occidental Sells Land Rights in Rockies for $1.3 Billion
* Mass Offshore Oil-Servicer Busts Imperil $30 Billion of Debt
* Biggest Oil Fund and Its CEO Face Impending SEC Action
* Fossil Fuels Face No ‘Wholesale Assault’ From Biden, RBC Says

 

PHYSICAL CRUDE NEWS:
* ASIA: Physical Cargo Prices Dip; Saudis Keep Up Pressure
* LATAM: More Venezuela Sanctions; Pemex’s FPSO Troubles
* US/CANADA: Trump and OPEC+ Couldn’t Stop Oil’s Breakdown
* NSEA: BP Sells Ekofisk Lower; Five VLCCs Float in Asia
* MED: Shell Bids Urals Higher; Neste Wins Surgut Tender
* WAF: NPDC Raises Oil Output; Nigeria Loading Plans Awaited

 

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: No Gasoline Reckoning, But Watch This Gauge
* EUROPE: Pernis Unit; Tupras Delays Work to 2021
* ASIA: Spot Naphtha Slumps; Jet Demand Seen Weaker

 

ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London. )
* JODI oil output data
* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data
* Insights Global weekly report on European refined product inventories in ARA region

 

ANALYST COLUMNS:
* China’s Sinopec, PetroChina to Boost Diesel Exports in Aug.: JLC
* U.S. Oil Output Seen Between 11m-11.5m B/D in 2H: Macquarie
* Drop in Natural Gas Volume Outpaces Virus-Fueled Demand Decline

 

OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Stocks, U.S. Futures Drop; Dollar Extends Gain: Markets Wrap

 

Singapore 380 INDIC                                     

Sep20    264.75   /             266.75

Oct20    262.25   /              264.25

Nov20   260.75   /             262.75

Dec20    261.00   /             263.00

Jan21     262.75   /             264.75

Feb21    264.75   /             266.75

Q4-20    261.25   /             263.25

Q1-21    264.50   /             266.50

Q2-21    269.75   /             271.75

Q3-21    273.25   /             276.25

CAL21    268.50   /             274.50

 

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC                                 

Sep20    250.50   /             252.50

Oct20    247.25   /             249.25

Nov20   245.75   /             247.75

Dec20    245.75   /             247.75

Jan21     247.50   /             249.50

Feb21    249.25   /             251.25

Q4-20    246.25   /             248.25

Q1-21    249.00   /             251.00

Q2-21    253.25   /             255.25

Q3-21    255.75   /             258.75

CAL21    252.00   /             258.00

 

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                     

Sep20    328.50   /              333.50

Oct20    331.25   /              336.25

Nov20   333.75   /              338.75

Dec20    336.25   /              341.25

Jan21     339.50   /              344.50

Feb21    342.50   /              347.50

Q4-20    333.75   /              338.75

Q1-21    342.25   /              347.25

Q2-21    350.00   /              356.00

Q3-21    357.00   /              363.00

CAL21    352.75   /              358.75

 

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                 

Sep20    307.25   /              312.25

Oct20    310.25   /              315.25

Nov20   313.00   /              318.00

Dec20    315.50   /              320.50

Jan21     319.50   /              324.50

Feb21    323.25   /              328.25

Q4-20    312.75   /              317.75

Q1-21    323.00   /              328.00

Q2-21    331.00   /              337.00

Q3-21    337.25   /              343.25

CAL21    333.00   /              339.00

 

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC                                   

Sep20    49.88     /              50.02

Oct20    50.27     /              50.47

Nov20   50.67     /              50.87

Dec20    51.10     /              51.30

Jan21     51.60     /              51.80

Feb21    52.10     /              52.30

Q4-20    50.70     /              50.90

Q1-21    52.11     /              52.31

Q2-21    53.53     /              53.73

Q3-21    54.75     /              54.95

CAL21    53.86     /              54.26

 

ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC                               

Sep20    376.63   /              378.63

Oct20    381.49   /              383.49

Nov20   385.56   /              387.56

Dec20    389.46   /              391.46

Jan21     393.73   /              395.73

Feb21    397.98   /              399.98

Q4-20    385.50   /              387.50

Q1-21    397.71   /              399.71

Q2-21    406.45   /              408.45

Q3-21    419.12   /              421.12

CAL21    412.10   /              414.10

 

Rott Hi5 Sing Hi5

Sep20 59.08 65.83

Oct20 65.33 71.08

Nov20 69.58 75.08

Dec20 72.08 77.33

Jan21 74.33 78.58

Feb21 76.33 79.33

Q4-20 69.00 74.50

Q1-21 76.16 79.33

Q2-21 82.58 82.83

Q3-21 85.41 85.08

CAL21 82.00 85.00

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