Good morning all. Brent rose by 9 cents, or 0.2%, to $45.22 a barrel by 4:19 am GMT, while WTI fell 9 cents, or 0.2%, at $42.53 a barrel.
Brent has been rising from last week’s highs mostly due to Hurricane induced gains due to possible storm aftermath effects on global oil flows, which could see US refineries boost gasoline demand from Europe.
More than 50% of US refining capacity is on the coast, with PADD III refining capacity, including condensate splitters, totalling over 10 million b/d, Platts data shows. Furthermore, producers have shut more than 1.5 million barrels per day of Gulf Coast offshore oil production, nearly 82% of the local production and 14% of the nation’s total output.
However, while Tropical Storm Marco was downgraded, resulting in WTI prices falling, Tropical Storm Laura continues to strengthen with the potential to become a very powerful hurricane according to various weather reports. Still, analysts see the impact of the hurricane as short lived, with the coronavirus and how fast global oil production returns to remaining the key price drivers for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, rising coronavirus cases in Europe and Asia continue to weigh on market expectations of a quick recovery in short-term energy demand. Global COVID-19 case count stood at 23,566,502, while deaths worldwide have crossed the 800,000 mark, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Polls by both Reuters and Platts expect US commercial crude inventories to decline for the fifth consecutive week by 4.3 million barrels at 508.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks are also expected to fall 2.7 million barrels to about 241.1 million barrels. Market participants will be looking for cues from inventory reports by the American Petroleum Institute and the US Energy Information Administration, due later today and on tomorrow, respectively.
Elsewhere, US and Chinese officials, who spoke by phone on Monday, see progress on resolving issues over the Phase 1 trade deal agreed in January and both sides are committed to the success of the agreement, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office said.
MARKETS NEWS:
* U.S. Strategic Reserve Crude Oil Stocks Fall 6.7M Bbl
* U.S. Imports of European Gasoline Reach 3-Mo. Low Before Storms
* China’s Diesel and Gasoline Stockpiles Rise to Record: SCI99
* No Quick End to Libya Strife After Haftar Derides Cease-Fire
* Pemex July Crude Oil Exports 1.05 Mln B/D, -5.7% M/M
* Venezuela’s PDVSA Oil Output at 406K B/D, Down 6% From July 31
* Mideast-China Tanker Rates Drop; Gasoline Vessels Surge
* Pakistan’s Oil & Gas Makes Discovery in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
OTHER NEWS:
* China Quickens Pace of U.S. Commodity Imports With Deal on Track
* Exxon Booted from Dow Industrials in Major Embrace of Tech
* Biggest Oil Fund Is Facing SEC Action But Still Luring Cash
* Trump’s Arctic Oil Drilling Plan Will Be Tested in Court by Foes
PHYSICAL CRUDE NEWS:
* ASIA: Traders Suspect Venezuela Oil in China; PTT’s Murban
* LATAM: Traders Suspect Venezuelan Oil; Guyana Tender
* US/CANADA: Storms Shut 82.4% of Gulf of Mexico Oil Output
* NSEA: BP Sells Forties at 3-Mo. Low; Nov. Output to Fall
* MED: Surgut Sells Urals to Shell; Russian Program Due Soon
* WAF: Sonangol Spot Offers; PTT, CPC, Perenco Oil Tenders
OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Refineries Shut Ahead of Storm Laura
* EUROPE: Exxon Fawley Disruption; Rhine; Gasoil Bets
* ASIA: Clean Fuels to Americas Up; BPCL Sold Naphtha
ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London.)
* 9:30pm: API weekly oil inventory report
* Russia loading program for September
ANALYST COLUMNS:
* Back-to-Back Storms Raise Risk for Energy Value Chain Along Gulf
* Storms Could Shut-In U.S. Refineries, Affect Gasoline Arb: FGE
* Saudi Aramco Wants to Be More Like Exxon and Shell: Julian Lee
OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Stocks, Futures, Yuan Climb on Trade, Virus Hope: Markets Wrap
Singapore 380 INDIC
Sep20 266.25 / 268.25
Oct20 265.00 / 267.00
Nov20 265.00 / 267.00
Dec20 265.25 / 267.25
Jan21 267.00 / 269.00
Feb21 268.75 / 270.75
Q4-20 265.00 / 267.00
Q1-21 268.75 / 270.75
Q2-21 273.75 / 275.75
Q3-21 277.75 / 280.75
CAL21 270.75 / 276.75
Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC
Sep20 253.75 / 255.75
Oct20 250.50 / 252.50
Nov20 248.75 / 250.75
Dec20 248.50 / 250.50
Jan21 250.00 / 252.00
Feb21 251.50 / 253.50
Q4-20 249.25 / 251.25
Q1-21 251.50 / 253.50
Q2-21 255.75 / 257.75
Q3-21 259.00 / 262.00
CAL21 254.25 / 260.25
Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep20 330.25 / 335.25
Oct20 333.00 / 338.00
Nov20 335.75 / 340.75
Dec20 338.50 / 343.50
Jan21 342.00 / 347.00
Feb21 345.00 / 350.00
Q4-20 335.75 / 340.75
Q1-21 345.00 / 350.00
Q2-21 352.25 / 358.25
Q3-21 358.50 / 364.50
CAL21 354.75 / 360.75
Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC
Sep20 307.50 / 312.50
Oct20 310.75 / 315.75
Nov20 314.00 / 319.00
Dec20 317.25 / 322.25
Jan21 321.00 / 326.00
Feb21 324.25 / 329.25
Q4-20 314.00 / 319.00
Q1-21 324.25 / 329.25
Q2-21 332.00 / 338.00
Q3-21 338.50 / 344.50
CAL21 334.25 / 340.25
Sing 10ppm GO INDIC
Sep20 49.97 / 50.11
Oct20 50.37 / 50.57
Nov20 50.79 / 50.99
Dec20 51.25 / 51.45
Jan21 51.78 / 51.98
Feb21 52.32 / 52.52
Q4-20 50.75 / 51.05
Q1-21 52.27 / 52.57
Q2-21 53.78 / 54.08
Q3-21 55.07 / 55.37
CAL21 54.17 / 54.57
ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC
Sep20 376.04 / 378.04
Oct20 381.22 / 383.22
Nov20 385.26 / 387.26
Dec20 389.24 / 391.24
Jan21 394.10 / 396.10
Feb21 398.73 / 400.73
Q4-20 385.25 / 387.25
Q1-21 398.33 / 400.33
Q2-21 407.59 / 409.59
Q3-21 417.85 / 419.85
CAL21 411.77 / 413.77
Rott Hi5 Sing Hi5
Sep20 55 66
Oct20 62 70
Nov20 67 72
Dec20 70 75
Jan21 73 77
Feb21 74 78
Q4-20 66 72
Q1-21 74 78
Q2-21 78 81
Q3-21 81 82
CAL21 80 84