Morning Oil Report 26/11/20

Good morning all,

 

Brent futures were flat at $48.60 a barrel by 0730 GMT, after rising around 1.6% in the previous session, in which Brent Crude futures reached highs of $49.09 per barrel

 

EIA Report

 

Crude: -0,754

Cushing: -1,721

Distillate: -1,441

Gasoline: 2,179

Production: 100

 

ExxonMobil have released a revision of its oil price forecast for the next decade, citing that prices could be 10% to 17% lower than originally forecast prior to the pandemic. (Reuters)

 

The CFTC have been criticized for the lack of answers given over the day that oil plunged into negative territory for a day in April, then rebounding quickly in the next trading day. A report gave minimal guidance on the occurrence and commissioners have stated that the it is incomplete and inadequate.  (Reuters)

 

Tullow has gone back to basics, as it looks to circumnavigate the current oil price depression by focusing its time and efforts into West African assets as opposed to the exploration on other fronts. It will now look to invest 90% of its total exploration volumes into West Africa in order to generate $7 billion of operational cash flow. (S&P Global Platts)

 

A suspected mine offshore of Saudi Arabia has damaged a tanker, with little further knows about the severity of the damage or cause of the strike. (Energy Voice)

 

INDEX: (MTD Estimates)

* Sing 380: 272.09

* Rott 3.5%: 251.21

* Sing 0.5%: 336.60

* Rott 0.5%: 313.85

 

 

MARKETS NEWS:
* Iraq Voices Frustration With OPEC Days Before Crunch Meeting
* Oil’s Surge Toward $50 Risks Giving OPEC+ Yet Another Headache
* Iraq Extends Bid Deadline for Oil Pre-Payment Deal by One Week
* Flurry of Asian Buy Tenders Adds Froth to Bullish Oil Market

* Stronger Oil Curve Points to Glut Relief at U.S. Storage Hub
* U.S. Oil Rig Count Up 10 to 241, Baker Hughes Says
* U.S. Gasoline Demand Falls to Lowest Level Since June: EIA
* Canadian Oil Sands Covid Outbreak Grows With Cold Lake Cases
* Canadian Crude-by-Rail Exports Rise 46% M/M to 94k b/d in Sept.

OTHER NEWS:
* Trump’s Economic Havoc in Iran Will Take More Than Biden to Fix
* Yemen Houthis Say They Signed Pact With UN on Decaying Tanker
* Brexit Deal Will Leave Carbon Market Question Wide Open
* Venezuelan Businessman Indicted in PDVSA KickbackScheme
* Ecuador Saving $620m on Diesel Subsidy Thanks to New Rules: Pozo
* Banks Aim to Slow Effort to Ban Bias Against Oil, Gun Firms
* Tullow Unveils Plan to Bolster Cash by $7 Billion, End Debt

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Vehicle Miles Up, U.S. Pulling Europe Diesel
* EUROPE: U.S. Pulls Diesel as Reverse Arb in Focus
* ASIA: China’s Gasoline Exports Seen Surging in Dec.

ECONOMIC EVENTS: (Times are London. )
* Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile weekly data
* Insights Global weekly report on European refined product inventories in ARA region
* Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.
** CME trading for energy contracts including WTI crude halts at 6pm, resuming at 11pm
* ICE Futures Europe trading for Brent crude, low-sulfur gasoil closes at 6:30pm

ANALYST COLUMNS:
* Morgan Stanley Closes Long Brent Timespread Position Post-Rally
* Physical Oil Tightness Not Seen Until 2Q 2021: JBC
* OPEC+ Likely to Delay Production Increase Plan by 3 Months: UBS

 

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC                                 

Dec20    272.25   /             274.25

Jan21     272.25   /             274.25

Feb21    272.00   /             274.00

Mar21   271.50   /             273.50

Apr21    270.75   /             272.75

May21  269.50   /             271.50

Q1-21    272.00   /             274.00

Q2-21    269.50   /             271.50

Q3-21    264.25   /             266.25

Q4-21    258.00   /             261.00

CAL21    265.75   /             268.75

 

Singapore 380 INDIC                                     

Dec20    291.00   /             293.00

Jan21     288.25   /              290.25

Feb21    287.25   /             289.25

Mar21   286.75   /             288.75

Apr21    285.75   /             287.75

May21  284.75   /             286.75

Q1-21    287.50   /             289.50

Q2-21    284.75   /             286.75

Q3-21    280.75   /             282.75

Q4-21    276.50   /             279.50

CAL21    282.50   /             285.50

 

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                 

Dec20    345.25   /              350.25

Jan21     346.25   /              351.25

Feb21    347.00   /              352.00

Mar21   347.50   /              352.50

Apr21    348.00   /              353.00

May21  348.50   /              353.50

Q1-21    347.00   /              352.00

Q2-21    348.50   /              353.50

Q3-21    349.50   /              355.50

Q4-21    350.50   /              356.50

CAL21    348.50   /              354.50

 

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                     

Dec20    371.25   /              376.25

Jan21     369.50   /              374.50

Feb21    369.00   /              374.00

Mar21   368.75   /              373.75

Apr21    368.75   /              373.75

May21  368.75   /              373.75

Q1-21    369.00   /              374.00

Q2-21    368.75   /              373.75

Q3-21    369.25   /              375.25

Q4-21    370.50   /              376.50

CAL21    369.00   /              375.00

 

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC                                   

Dec20    53.30     /              53.44

Jan21     53.35     /              53.55

Feb21    53.58     /              53.78

Mar21   53.85     /              54.05

Apr21    54.13     /              54.33

May21  54.40     /              54.60

Q1-21    53.60     /              53.80

Q2-21    54.39     /              54.59

Q3-21    55.24     /              55.44

Q4-21    55.82     /              56.02

CAL21    54.66     /              55.06

 

ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC                               

Dec20    395.89   /              397.89

Jan21     399.41   /              401.41

Feb21    402.81   /              404.81

Mar21   405.10   /              407.10

Apr21    407.47   /              409.47

May21  409.59   /              411.59

Q1-21    402.45   /              404.45

Q2-21    409.59   /              411.59

Q3-21    415.77   /              417.77

Q4-21    420.10   /              422.10

CAL21    411.97   /              413.97

The information provided in this communication is not intended for retail clients. It is general in nature only and does not constitute advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any swap or other financial instruments, nor constitute any recommendation on our part. The information has been prepared without considering your investment objectives, financial situation, or knowledge and experience. This material is not a research report and is not intended as such. FIS is not responsible for any trading decisions taken based on this communication. Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives, and options involve substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. You are advised to perform an independent investigation to determine whether a transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without our prior written consent. Freight Investor Services Ltd (FIS) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 211452) and is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”). Freight Investor Services PTE Ltd (‘FIS PTE’) is a private limited company, incorporated and registered in Singapore with company number 200603922G, and has subsidiary offices in India and Shanghai. Freight Investor Solutions DMCC (‘FIS DMCC’) is a private limited company, incorporated and registered in Dubai with company number DMCC1225. Further information about FIS including the location of its offices can be found on our website at www.freightinvestorservices.com

 

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *