Morning Oil Report 25/11/20

Brent crude was up 38 cents, or 0.8%, at $48.24 a barrel by 0616 GMT, having risen almost 4% in the previous session. WTI crude gained 27 cents, or 0.6%, to $45.18, after rising more than 4% on Tuesday. Levels are at the highest since March, where we entered 2020, in an already oversupplied oil market.

 

Iraq has been hit hard by the pandemic and the crash in oil prices, and so, the second largest OPEC producer is looking to strike up an oil agreement of forward payments over a five year period in response to falling oil revenues. Iraq will supply the taker of the contract with Basrah crude in a report cited by Reuters. (OilPrice.com)

 

Although three vaccines have emerged as successful in the fight against the coronavirus, they may not be readily available until later in the year in 2021, putting a recovery of travel on hold for a while until vaccinations have been rolled out to enough of the global population.

 

South Korea’s oil exports of refined products feel by 22.8% in October from a year earlier as Jet fuel dropped to the lowest level in 13 years. (S&P Global Platts)

 

Eyes will turn to the next OPEC meeting that is due to take place at the end of the month, on the discussion of how to progress over the current output quotas going into the new year. OPEC producers are set to increase production by 2 million barrels per day, or 2% of global oil demand in January 2021. (Reuters)

 

INDEX: (MTD Estimates)

* Sing 380: 270.69

* Rott 3.5%: 250.04

* Sing 0.5%: 334.74

* Rott 0.5%: 312.13

 

MARKETS NEWS:
* Oil Curve Flips Most Bullish in Months After Vaccine Rally
* China’s Haul of U.S. Crude and Corn Eyed for Trade Deal Progress
* API Reports U.S. Crude Stockpiles Rose 3.8M Bbl Last Week
* Oil Producers Will Lose Hedging Buoy Entering 2021: BNEF Chart
* Sudan to End Oil Production Contract of China’s CNPC by Year- End
* Thai Refiner Tipco Finishes Wind Down of Venezuela Oil Purchases
* China’s Oil Imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia Fell Last Month
* OIL DEMAND MONITOR: Gasoline’s Upswing Fizzles in U.S., U.K.
* Caribbean-U.S. Dirty Tankers Gain; Cross-Med Clean Vessels Rise
* Rep. of Congo Plans to Export 238k B/d of Djeno, N’Kossa in Jan.

OIL PRODUCT NEWS:
* U.S.: Demand Up, Along With Gasoline Stockpiles
* EUROPE: Total to Halt Donges; Tarragona; Kralupy
* ASIA: China’s Air Travel Boom; Vietnam’s Tax Cut

ECONOMIC DATA: (Times are London.)
* 3:30pm: EIA weekly U.S. oil inventory report
* 6pm: Baker Hughes weekly rig count report; moved to Wednesday instead of usual Friday release due to Thanksgiving holiday
* Genscape weekly ARA crude inventory report
* Russia crude-loading program for December

ANALYST VIEWS/COLUMNS:
* China’s Gasoline Exports May Gain 16% M/m in Dec. on Quota: JLC
* Bank of America Bullish on Oil in 2021 as Vaccine Spurs Optimism
* Vaccine Euphoria Not Discounting Logistics, Oil Fundamental View

OTHER FINANCIAL MARKETS:
* Stocks on Track for Record Month; Treasuries Dip: Markets Wrap

 

Rotterdam 3.5% INDIC                                 

Dec20    272.50   /             274.50

Jan21     272.25   /             274.25

Feb21    271.75   /             273.75

Mar21   271.00   /             273.00

Apr21    270.00   /             272.00

May21  268.75   /             270.75

Q1-21    271.75   /             273.75

Q2-21    268.75   /             270.75

Q3-21    263.75   /             265.75

Q4-21    257.25   /             260.25

CAL21    265.00   /             268.00

 

Singapore 380 INDIC                                     

Dec20    291.00   /             293.00

Jan21     288.25   /              290.25

Feb21    287.25   /             289.25

Mar21   286.50   /             288.50

Apr21    285.50   /             287.50

May21  284.50   /             286.50

Q1-21    287.50   /             289.50

Q2-21    284.50   /             286.50

Q3-21    280.75   /             282.75

Q4-21    276.25   /             279.25

CAL21    281.00   /             284.00

 

Rott VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                 

Dec20    342.25   /              347.25

Jan21     343.25   /              348.25

Feb21    343.75   /              348.75

Mar21   344.25   /              349.25

Apr21    344.75   /              349.75

May21  345.25   /              350.25

Q1-21    343.75   /              348.75

Q2-21    345.25   /              350.25

Q3-21    346.00   /              352.00

Q4-21    346.75   /              352.75

CAL21    345.00   /              351.00

 

Singapore VLSFO 0.5% INDIC                                     

Dec20    366.25   /              371.25

Jan21     364.50   /              369.50

Feb21    363.75   /              368.75

Mar21   363.50   /              368.50

Apr21    363.50   /              368.50

May21  363.50   /              368.50

Q1-21    363.75   /              368.75

Q2-21    363.50   /              368.50

Q3-21    363.50   /              369.50

Q4-21    364.50   /              370.50

CAL21    363.50   /              369.50

 

Sing 10ppm GO INDIC                                   

Dec20    52.70     /              52.84

Jan21     52.74     /              52.94

Feb21    52.96     /              53.16

Mar21   53.25     /              53.45

Apr21    53.54     /              53.74

May21  53.81     /              54.01

Q1-21    53.00     /              53.20

Q2-21    53.81     /              54.01

Q3-21    54.67     /              54.87

Q4-21    55.32     /              55.52

CAL21    54.10     /              54.50

 

ICE Gasoil 10ppm INDIC                               

Dec20    391.64   /              393.64

Jan21     395.16   /              397.16

Feb21    398.56   /              400.56

Mar21   400.85   /              402.85

Apr21    403.22   /              405.22

May21  405.43   /              407.43

Q1-21    398.20   /              400.20

Q2-21    405.44   /              407.44

Q3-21    411.77   /              413.77

Q4-21    416.51   /              418.51

CAL21    407.98   /              409.98

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