OPEC+ to ease cuts on improving market confidence

According to data released yesterday by the EIA, US crude inventories fell 7.5 million barrels to 531.7 million barrels for the week ended July 10, outpacing the 2.1 million-barrel drop expected by analysts and narrowing the surplus to the five-year average to 16.6%. Furthermore, gasoline stocks fell 3.1 million barrels over the same period to …

After flaming June, dry July for oil market?

Rising COVID-19 cases globally reached 13 million infections and half million deaths, remaining a key drag on market sentiments. With California, the Philippines, Hong Kong and Australia tightening restrictions again as daily infections spike, July could be an even more challenging month for oil than expected.   Moreover, the market will be monitoring closely the …

OPEC+ ponders when and how far to cut

OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to recommend the next level of cuts after compliance in the group hit 107% in June, up from 77% in May.   Record high inventories in the US and a second wave contagion around the globe have added speculation that OPEC+ might yet …

US rig count falls as Asia refiners stall

Both WTI and Brent crude contracts rose about 9% last week and Brent crude futures have flipped into backwardation, so that oil for immediate delivery costs more than that to be provided later, usually an indication of tightening supply.   In Canada and the United States, the number of operating oil and natural gas rigs …

ShipShape: The Long and Winding Road

It is one of the best-known Beatles songs from their final studio album Let It Be, but it also encapsulates perfectly the challenge many commodity markets face as they begin to recover from the enormous disruption of Coronavirus.   The pandemic has impacted every metric you can think of: quantitative easing, government debt, unemployment, share …

Oil market gripped by ‘rabid optimism’ for now at least

OPEC and its allies edged closer to a consensus on extending production cuts to prop up the oil market, even as wrangling continued for a third day about whether to bring forward their next meeting.   Russia and several other OPEC+ nations favor extending the group’s current output curbs by one month.   The cuts …

Ship Shape: The End of the Road

One thing that has confusingly held true up to now was that, against all the trends of many other commodities and market, iron ore kept on rising. It has been the black sheep of the markets, standing there, teeth gritted, weathering the storm that had swept away many other markets. However, just as other markets …

API v EIA – quick on the draw?

The predicted rise in US stock levels have dragged down markets further this morning, continuing losses and putting prices ever closer to the $30 mark again.   Data from U.S. industry group API predicts crude stocks rose by 8.7 million barrels in the week to May 22, compared with analysts’ expectations for a draw of …

OPEC+ battles to cut, investors bet to buy

OPEC+ is responding to the oil market’s collapse with an urgency never seen before. The alliance’s program of production cutbacks this month is well on the way to trimming 9.7 million barrels of daily crude output – roughly 10% of global supplies, according to tanker-tracking data, interviews with physical crude traders and refiners, and assessments …