After flaming June, dry July for oil market?

Rising COVID-19 cases globally reached 13 million infections and half million deaths, remaining a key drag on market sentiments. With California, the Philippines, Hong Kong and Australia tightening restrictions again as daily infections spike, July could be an even more challenging month for oil than expected.   Moreover, the market will be monitoring closely the …

OPEC+ ponders when and how far to cut

OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to recommend the next level of cuts after compliance in the group hit 107% in June, up from 77% in May.   Record high inventories in the US and a second wave contagion around the globe have added speculation that OPEC+ might yet …

Short term crude direction waits on data

Newly reported coronavirus cases and mobility data, including an EIA report on gasoline consumption coming out later this week, will be watched by market participants in order to determine the short-term direction of crude prices in the next few days.   On the supply side OPEC+ production is at its lowest since 1991 and is …

Oil off highs on API build, awaiting EIA data

The oil market has continued to come off recent highs after the API predicted a build of 1.7 million bbls for last week.   It did, however, also predict a draw in gasoline and distillate levels. But let’s keep an eye on for later this afternoon when the EIA will confirm the actual stats.   …

What the US takes away, Russia gives back

Prices dropped last night after Peter Navarro told Fox News in an interview that the trade deal with China was ‘over’, linking the breakdown in part to Beijing not sounding the alarm earlier about the outbreak of the Coronavirus.   These worries were calmed by assurances from the President and White House that the agreement …

US rig count falls as Asia refiners stall

Both WTI and Brent crude contracts rose about 9% last week and Brent crude futures have flipped into backwardation, so that oil for immediate delivery costs more than that to be provided later, usually an indication of tightening supply.   In Canada and the United States, the number of operating oil and natural gas rigs …

ShipShape: The Long and Winding Road

It is one of the best-known Beatles songs from their final studio album Let It Be, but it also encapsulates perfectly the challenge many commodity markets face as they begin to recover from the enormous disruption of Coronavirus.   The pandemic has impacted every metric you can think of: quantitative easing, government debt, unemployment, share …

Oil benchmarks fall on virus resurgence fears

Oil benchmarks fell about 8% last week, their first weekly declines since April, as U.S. Coronavirus cases started increasing.   Over the weekend, more than 25,000 new U.S. cases were reported on Saturday alone as more states reported record new infections and hospitalizations.   A cluster of infections in Beijing has increased concern of a …

Crude extends losses on ‘second wave’ fears

The crude market extended losses overnight as a surge in U.S. Coronavirus cases this week raised the prospect of a second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak hitting demand in the world’s biggest consumer of crude and fuel.   Traders are concerned about signs that Coronavirus cases in the U.S. are continuing to rise and topped …

#moreforless – the new shape of OPEC+ supply policy?

Saudi Arabia’s extra voluntary oil-production cut, which came on top of the OPEC+ supply curbs, will cease at the end of this month as demand recovers.   Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom’s additional reductions, which amounted to about 1.2 million barrels a day including contributions from its closest allies in the …