Indian tender announcement delayed
A new Indian tender was widely expected to be announced last week but didn’t appear. The basis for the delay included a slowdown in domestic urea sales during August and September combined with the significant import volumes already scheduled, as well as funding issues within the Department of Fertilizers (source Profercy).
Progress was made Tuesday however, with the DOF announcing it will lift restrictions on fertilizer subsidy payments, which has allayed the potential funding issues. As a result, a tender announcement seems closer once more, expected either this week or next. FIS expects a new tender announcement will provide support to the market, however prices likely to remain under pressure in the interim as buyers await the confirmation of further Indian demand.
Intl Urea futures rangebound
International urea futures have been rangebound the past couple of weeks, with limited conviction as the market again awaits price signals from a new Indian tender. Physical business has been slow in fob AG and cfr Brazil markets, and futures have tracked sideways as a result. Egypt futures meanwhile, have seen increased interest on both sides of the market, following an uptick in physical activity. The US domestic market has rebounded slightly this past week, with prices firming in Q420 and Q121 – Nov/Dec futures are back trading at $218, whilst the Mar21 contract has traded as high as $227 this week.
DAP moves higher
October Nola DAP futures have traded up to $355, and $345 has printed for both the November and December contracts this week on prospects of great demand come fall application. We’re also hearing unconfirmed rumours that a vessel scheduled to arrive in Nola has slipped and there might be a bit of a short squeeze before river close. Either way, we’re seeing players positive on DAP this week.